Evaluating Causal Relationships Flashcards
6 cards from real Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal practice questions. Tap to flip, then mark Knew It or Still Learning — missed cards come back until you master them.
Read the first 6 Evaluating Causal Relationships flashcards as text
A study finds that cities with more ice cream sales have higher drowning rates. A researcher concludes that ice cream causes drowning. What is the most critical flaw?
Answer: A confounding variable (hot weather) likely explains both trends.
Hot weather increases both ice cream consumption and swimming, making weather the common cause rather than a direct causal link.
Every time employee morale surveys score high, productivity increases the following quarter. A manager concludes that high morale causes productivity gains. What must be considered?
Answer: Reverse causation is possible — rising productivity may lift morale first.
Correlation can run in either direction; higher productivity expectations may boost morale, not the other way around.
A new training program was introduced in January. Errors dropped by 20% in February. The HR team declares the training caused the drop. Which alternative explanation weakens this claim most?
Answer: A separate process improvement was also implemented in January.
If another intervention occurred simultaneously, it is impossible to isolate the training as the cause.
Research shows people who eat breakfast regularly earn higher incomes. A public health report states: 'Eating breakfast boosts earning potential.' What reasoning error is present?
Answer: Confounding variables such as socioeconomic status likely explain both habits.
Higher socioeconomic status correlates with both stable breakfast habits and higher earnings, making it the likely common cause.
A company notices that departments with standing desks report fewer sick days. They plan to give all employees standing desks to cut absenteeism. What critical thinking concern applies?
Answer: Self-selection bias: healthier employees may have chosen standing desks.
If only health-conscious employees opted into standing desks, the correlation reflects their pre-existing habits, not the desks' effect.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy in which:
Answer: An event following another is assumed to be caused by it.
The fallacy 'after this, therefore because of this' confuses temporal sequence with causation.