Assessing Probability of Inferences Flashcards
7 cards from real Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal practice questions. Tap to flip, then mark Knew It or Still Learning — missed cards come back until you master them.
Read the first 7 Assessing Probability of Inferences flashcards as text
Statement: All employees who participated in the wellness program reported reduced stress levels. Inference: The wellness program is effective for all employees in the company. How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Insufficient Data
Only participants reported outcomes; non-participants and self-selection bias mean we cannot generalize to all employees.
Statement: When the speed limit on Highway 9 was lowered from 65 to 55 mph, the number of fatal accidents decreased by 25% the following year. Inference: Lowering speed limits reduces fatal accidents on that highway. How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably True
The before-and-after data with a plausible mechanism (lower speed = reduced crash severity) makes this inference probably true.
Statement: The company's stock price rose 20% the day its new product was announced. Inference: Investors believe the new product will be profitable. How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably True
Stock price increases on announcement days typically reflect positive investor sentiment about future profitability.
Statement: A survey of 50 residents in a town of 200,000 found that 80% preferred the new bus route. Inference: The majority of the town's residents prefer the new bus route. How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Insufficient Data
A sample of 50 from 200,000 is far too small to reliably represent the entire town's preference.
Statement: Every time sales staff received a bonus tied to customer satisfaction scores, those scores rose the next month. This pattern has held for 12 consecutive months. Inference: Bonuses tied to satisfaction scores improve those scores. How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably True
Twelve consecutive months of the same pattern is strong evidence of a reliable relationship, making the inference probably true.
Statement: The defendant was seen near the crime scene at the time of the incident. Inference: The defendant committed the crime. How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Insufficient Data
Proximity is suggestive but insufficient alone to conclude guilt; many innocent people may also have been nearby.
Statement: A neighborhood that installed street lighting reported a 35% drop in nighttime robberies over one year. Inference: Street lighting deters nighttime robbery. How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably True
The consistent drop after installation aligns with criminology research linking visibility to deterrence, supporting a 'probably true' rating.