Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal — Questions and Answers

Question 1: Statement: In a local election, Candidate A received 45% of the vote, Candidate B received 43%, and Candidate C received 12%. All votes have been counted. Inference: Candidate A is the new mayor.

FALSE
TRUE
PROBABLY TRUE
INSUFFICIENT DATA (Correct answer)

Correct answer: INSUFFICIENT DATA

While Candidate A received the most votes (a plurality), we do not know the rules of the election. Many elections require a candidate to receive more than 50% of the vote to win outright. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election between the top two candidates might be required. Without knowing the specific election rules, we cannot conclude that Candidate A is the winner.

Question 2: Premise: No employee who is on probation may approve expenditures. Premise: Maria is on probation. Conclusion: Maria cannot approve expenditures. Does the conclusion follow?

No, because Maria may have a special exemption
Only if her manager also agrees
The conclusion is uncertain without HR policy details
Yes, the conclusion follows necessarily (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Yes, the conclusion follows necessarily

The universal negative premise combined with Maria's membership in that group makes the conclusion deductively certain.

Question 3: Premises: All red cards in the deck are hearts or diamonds. This card is a spade. Conclusion: This card is not red.

More information is required
The conclusion is possibly false
The conclusion does not follow
The conclusion follows (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The conclusion follows

Since all red cards are hearts or diamonds, a spade cannot be red — the conclusion follows validly by modus tollens.

Question 4: Passage: A teacher states: 'None of my students who completed all homework assignments failed the final exam.' Inference: 'Students who complete all homework assignments will pass the final exam.' How should this inference be rated?

Probably False
Insufficient Data
True
Probably True (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Probably True

The inference is probably true because the teacher's data shows a consistent pattern, though future students could still fail despite completing homework.

Question 5: Identify the hidden assumption: 'Since employee morale surveys improved, our new wellness program is working.'

The wellness program is the sole cause of improved scores (Correct answer)
Wellness programs are expensive to run
Employees respond honestly to all surveys
Survey scores are the only measure of morale

Correct answer: The wellness program is the sole cause of improved scores

The argument assumes no other changes occurred that could also explain the morale improvement.

Question 6: Statement: A survey found that 85% of customers who used the new mobile app rated their shopping experience as 'excellent.' Last year, before the app launched, only 50% gave that rating. Inference: The mobile app caused the increase in customer satisfaction.

Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
False
Probably False
Probably True
True

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

The correlation is noted but the statement provides no evidence ruling out other simultaneous changes (new products, better service), so causation cannot be established.

Question 7: Research shows that students who eat breakfast score 12% higher on standardized tests than those who skip it. Which of the following, if true, most weakens this argument?

Breakfast programs are available free of charge at most schools
The study was conducted across multiple school districts
Some students perform well on tests regardless of breakfast habits
Students who eat breakfast also tend to come from households with higher incomes and more educational resources (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Students who eat breakfast also tend to come from households with higher incomes and more educational resources

A confounding variable like household income and resources could explain the score difference rather than breakfast itself.

Question 8: Premise: All contracts require two parties. Premise: A memorandum of understanding (MOU) is not signed by two parties in this case. Conclusion: This MOU is not a contract. Does the conclusion follow?

The conclusion is possibly true
No, the conclusion does not follow
Yes, the conclusion follows (Correct answer)
More information is needed

Correct answer: Yes, the conclusion follows

If all contracts require two parties and this MOU lacks two-party signatures, it deductively cannot be a contract.

Question 9: Passage: Sarah exercises five days a week and maintains a healthy diet. Conclusion: Sarah is in excellent health. What is the status of this conclusion?

Insufficient data
True beyond reasonable doubt
Probably true (Correct answer)
Probably false

Correct answer: Probably true

Regular exercise and healthy diet are strong indicators of good health, making the conclusion probable though not certain.

Question 10: Quarterly earnings data shows Company Z's revenue grew 8% in Q1, declined 3% in Q2, grew 5% in Q3, and declined 2% in Q4, for a net annual growth of about 8%. An analyst concludes the company had a strong year. Is this interpretation supported?

No — any decline in any quarter means the company performed poorly.
Yes — quarterly fluctuations are normal and don't affect the annual conclusion.
Yes — 8% annual growth is objectively strong in any industry.
Partially — 8% net growth is positive, but the within-year volatility suggests instability that warrants further investigation. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Partially — 8% net growth is positive, but the within-year volatility suggests instability that warrants further investigation.

Net annual growth is a positive signal, but alternating growth and decline quarters suggest revenue instability that a simple annual figure masks — a fuller picture requires understanding the volatility.

Question 11: Premises: Some athletes are vegetarians. All vegetarians avoid red meat. Conclusion: Some athletes avoid red meat. This conclusion:

Does not follow
Is probably true only
Contradicts the premises
Follows necessarily (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Follows necessarily

If some athletes are vegetarians and all vegetarians avoid red meat, then at least those athlete-vegetarians avoid red meat — the conclusion necessarily follows.

Question 12: A bar chart compares company revenue from 2019 to 2023. The y-axis starts at $950,000 rather than zero. What effect does this have on the data's interpretation?

It is standard practice with no effect on meaning
It reduces the apparent growth trend
It visually exaggerates differences, making small changes appear dramatic (Correct answer)
It makes the data more precise

Correct answer: It visually exaggerates differences, making small changes appear dramatic

A truncated y-axis amplifies visual differences, potentially misleading viewers about the actual magnitude of change.

Question 13: A study reports: 'Participants who slept 8 hours performed 20% better on memory tasks than those who slept 5 hours.' A journalist concludes: 'Eight hours of sleep is the key to a good memory.' The journalist's conclusion is:

An inference that overgeneralizes from one study's specific finding. (Correct answer)
A value judgment about lifestyle choices.
A scientific consensus endorsed by the research community.
A fact because the study provides measurable evidence.

Correct answer: An inference that overgeneralizes from one study's specific finding.

The study shows an association in one experiment; calling sleep 'the key' overstates what a single controlled result proves.

Question 14: Passage: No students who failed the midterm were allowed to take the final exam. James took the final exam. What is the best inference? A) James passed the midterm. B) James probably passed the midterm. C) James received special permission to take the final. D) James did not study for the midterm.

James received special permission to take the final.
James did not study for the midterm.
James probably passed the midterm.
James passed the midterm. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: James passed the midterm.

The rule states failing students cannot take the final; since James did take it, it is certain he did not fail — i.e., he passed the midterm.

Question 15: A national report states that regions with more libraries per capita tend to have lower crime rates. What is the probability of the inference: Building more libraries in high-crime areas will reduce crime.

Probably False
Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Probably True
True

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

The correlation between libraries and lower crime does not establish causation, and the underlying factors such as funding, education levels, and economic conditions are not addressed.

Question 16: A rule states: 'Only certified inspectors may approve a building.' Rafael approved a building. What follows logically?

Rafael is a certified inspector (Correct answer)
Rafael may or may not be a certified inspector
Rafael will receive a commendation for his work
Rafael bypassed proper procedure

Correct answer: Rafael is a certified inspector

'Only X may do Y' means being X is a necessary condition for doing Y. Unlike 'If X then Y,' this form can be reversed: if Y occurred (approval happened), X must be true (Rafael must be certified). This is one of the few valid reverse inferences.

Question 17: Which of the following best represents a necessary condition for establishing a causal relationship between A and B?

A must be the only factor present when B occurs.
B must never occur without A occurring first.
A and B must occur simultaneously in every observed case.
A must precede B in time, they must be correlated, and alternative explanations must be ruled out. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: A must precede B in time, they must be correlated, and alternative explanations must be ruled out.

The standard criteria for causation include temporal precedence, covariation, and elimination of competing explanations.

Question 18: A study found that employees who work remotely at least three days per week report higher job satisfaction than those who work entirely in the office. However, remote workers also report feeling less connected to their colleagues. Which of the following interpretations is BEST supported by the passage?

Office workers are generally unhappy with their jobs.
Companies should require all employees to work remotely full-time.
There is a trade-off between job satisfaction and social connection in remote work arrangements. (Correct answer)
Remote work improves all aspects of employee well-being.

Correct answer: There is a trade-off between job satisfaction and social connection in remote work arrangements.

The passage explicitly states remote workers have higher satisfaction but feel less connected, indicating a trade-off between these two factors.

Question 19: A school announces: 'Student A scored 95/100 on the mathematics exam; Student B scored 62/100.' Which is an inference?

Student B scored 62 out of 100 on the exam.
Student A understands mathematics better than Student B. (Correct answer)
Student A scored 33 points higher than Student B.
Student A scored 95 out of 100 on the exam.

Correct answer: Student A understands mathematics better than Student B.

Concluding that Student A 'understands mathematics better' goes beyond test scores — test performance can reflect preparation, anxiety, or luck rather than fundamental understanding.

Question 20: A company announcement reads: 'After restructuring, our workforce was reduced from 500 to 350 employees, and quarterly profits rose by 18%.' Which is a fact?

The remaining employees are more productive.
Layoffs directly caused the profit increase.
The workforce was reduced from 500 to 350 employees. (Correct answer)
The company will continue to reduce its workforce.

Correct answer: The workforce was reduced from 500 to 350 employees.

The workforce reduction from 500 to 350 is a specific, verifiable fact stated in the announcement.

Question 21: A product recall was issued for a children's toy after three injury reports out of two million units sold. A parent concludes the toy is extremely dangerous. This inference is: A) Probably true — any injuries prove the toy is dangerous. B) Certainly true — a recall always means extreme danger. C) Probably false — three injuries in two million units suggests a very low injury rate. D) Insufficient data — more information on injury severity is needed.

Insufficient data — more information on injury severity is needed.
Certainly true — a recall always means extreme danger.
Probably true — any injuries prove the toy is dangerous.
Probably false — three injuries in two million units suggests a very low injury rate. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Probably false — three injuries in two million units suggests a very low injury rate.

An injury rate of 0.00015% is extremely low; characterizing the toy as 'extremely dangerous' is not supported by the data.

Question 22: It's a race against time to treat a stroke. Oxygen and sugar cannot reach the brain's cells because of blood clots that block the blood supply. It then results in the brain cells dying quickly. According to recent research, certain brain cells could survive acute oxygen deprivation. Today's researchers want to create a medication that can mimic that phenomenon. People who have had a stroke will not survive if they are not treated right away.

Conclusion does not follows (Correct answer)
Conclusion follows

Correct answer: Conclusion does not follows

The passage states that 'certain brain cells could survive acute oxygen deprivation,' and researchers are working on a medication to mimic this. This directly contradicts the absolute claim in the inference that people 'will not survive' if not treated right away. While immediate treatment is critical, the text suggests a possibility of survival or at least cell resilience, making the conclusion too definitive.

Question 23: A survey result states: '62% of respondents said they exercise at least three times per week.' Which of the following is an inference from this information? A) 62% of survey respondents reported exercising at least three times per week. B) The survey measured self-reported exercise frequency. C) The majority of all Americans exercise at least three times per week. D) The survey collected data on respondents' exercise habits.

The majority of all Americans exercise at least three times per week. (Correct answer)
The survey collected data on respondents' exercise habits.
The survey measured self-reported exercise frequency.
62% of survey respondents reported exercising at least three times per week.

Correct answer: The majority of all Americans exercise at least three times per week.

Generalizing from survey respondents to all Americans is an inference; the survey result applies only to those surveyed.

Question 24: Question: Should the US adopt a universal basic income (UBI)? Argument: UBI has been successfully piloted in Finland, which has a very different economic structure from the US. Is this a strong argument?

No, because the argument actually weakens the case for UBI by noting the structural differences. (Correct answer)
Yes, because any successful pilot supports UBI adoption.
No, because Finland is not a credible source.
Yes, because universal income is a human right.

Correct answer: No, because the argument actually weakens the case for UBI by noting the structural differences.

The argument is weak because while it cites a pilot, it simultaneously undermines transferability by noting structural differences, making it irrelevant to the US context.

Question 25: Statement: All of the top-ranked universities in the country require applicants to submit standardized test scores. Riverdale University does not require standardized test scores. Inference: Riverdale University is not one of the top-ranked universities.

Insufficient Data
False
Probably False
Probably True
True (Correct answer)

Correct answer: True

Since all top-ranked universities require test scores and Riverdale does not, it logically follows that Riverdale is not among the top-ranked universities.

Question 26: Statement: 'Should the US implement a four-day workweek by law?' Argument: 'No, because Fridays are a popular day for business meetings and a shorter week would disrupt scheduling.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Weak, because remote work has already eliminated Friday meetings
Strong, because business routines are protected by contract law
Strong, because meeting disruption causes measurable productivity loss
Weak, because scheduling adjustments are trivial adaptations that do not address the core merits of the policy (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Weak, because scheduling adjustments are trivial adaptations that do not address the core merits of the policy

Scheduling inconvenience is a minor, easily adaptable concern that fails to address the substantive economic and labor implications of a four-day workweek law.

Question 27: A study finds that employees who work remotely report higher job satisfaction than office-based employees. A company executive concludes that switching all employees to remote work will increase overall satisfaction. What is the strongest objection to this conclusion?

Remote work requires reliable internet access
Some employees may prefer a hybrid model
Employees currently working remotely may have self-selected into roles suited to remote work, making them inherently more satisfied (Correct answer)
The study did not measure productivity

Correct answer: Employees currently working remotely may have self-selected into roles suited to remote work, making them inherently more satisfied

Self-selection bias means current remote workers chose that arrangement, so forcing it on everyone may not yield the same satisfaction levels.

Question 28: A hospital records show that the average patient wait time in the emergency room increased from 45 minutes to 67 minutes over the past year. A hospital administrator concludes that the nursing staff is underperforming. Which statement best describes the administrator's conclusion?

It is an inference that goes beyond what the data actually shows. (Correct answer)
It is a fact because wait times are objective measurements.
It is a verifiable fact supported directly by the data presented.
It is neither a fact nor an inference, but a policy recommendation.

Correct answer: It is an inference that goes beyond what the data actually shows.

The data only establishes that wait times increased; it does not identify nursing performance as the cause. The administrator is drawing a causal inference that is not supported by the recorded statistics alone — many other factors could explain the change.

Question 29: Statement: 'Switching to renewable energy will reduce our company's carbon footprint.' Proposed assumption: Renewable energy produces fewer carbon emissions than the company's current energy source. Is this assumption MADE or NOT MADE?

Made (Correct answer)
Cannot Determine
Partially Made
Not Made

Correct answer: Made

The assumption IS made because a switch to renewables can only reduce carbon footprint if renewables emit less carbon than the current source.

Question 30: Question: Should professional athletes be required to serve as role models for youth? Argument: Many professional athletes come from difficult backgrounds and have overcome significant personal challenges. Is this a strong argument?

Yes, because children look up to athletes regardless.
No, because athletes are paid to perform, not to educate.
Yes, because overcoming hardship makes someone inspirational.
No, because an athlete's personal background does not create an obligation to serve as a role model. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: No, because an athlete's personal background does not create an obligation to serve as a role model.

The argument is weak because a person's background, however admirable, is irrelevant to whether they should be legally or professionally required to be a role model.

Question 31: None of the products tested by Lab Q contained harmful chemicals. Inference: All products made by the companies Lab Q tested are safe.

Probably True
Probably False
Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
True

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

We do not know whether Lab Q tested every product those companies make or what 'safe' encompasses beyond harmful chemicals.

Question 32: Statement: A survey conducted in a specific city found that 85% of residents who own a dog report feeling 'happy' on a daily basis, compared to only 60% of residents who do not own a pet. The survey was professionally conducted with a representative sample and a low margin of error. Inference: Owning a dog makes people in this city happier.

The inference is probably false.
The inference is definitely true.
There is insufficient data to determine if the inference is true. (Correct answer)
The inference is probably true.

Correct answer: There is insufficient data to determine if the inference is true.

There is 'Insufficient Data' to support the inference. The statement shows a correlation between dog ownership and reported happiness, but it does not establish causation. It is equally possible that happier people are more likely to get dogs, or that a third factor (like being more active or having a larger home) contributes to both dog ownership and happiness. The data does not prove that the act of owning a dog is the cause of the increased happiness.

Question 33: A pie chart shows that 45% of a company's revenue comes from Product A, 30% from Product B, and 25% from other products. Marketing argues that Product A should receive the most investment. Which is the best interpretation of this data for decision-making?

Product A should definitely receive the most investment because it generates the most revenue.
The revenue distribution shows Product A's current dominance, but investment decisions should also consider growth potential, profit margins, and market saturation. (Correct answer)
Products B and others should receive more investment since Product A already performs well.
The data proves Product A is the company's most important product indefinitely.

Correct answer: The revenue distribution shows Product A's current dominance, but investment decisions should also consider growth potential, profit margins, and market saturation.

Current revenue share shows what is performing now, but investment decisions also require growth potential, margins, competitive dynamics, and strategic direction — data provides one input, not the full answer.

Question 34: Argument: 'Capital punishment should be abolished because innocent people have been executed.' In Watson-Glaser terms, this argument is:

Strong, because most people oppose capital punishment
Strong, because the irreversible execution of innocents is a directly relevant and serious concern (Correct answer)
Weak, because no punishment system is perfect
Weak, because capital punishment deters crime

Correct answer: Strong, because the irreversible execution of innocents is a directly relevant and serious concern

The irreversible harm of executing innocent people is a substantial, directly relevant reason bearing directly on the question of capital punishment policy.

Question 35: A debater claims: 'My opponent's plan to reduce taxes is just a way to help the rich get richer.' The opponent actually proposed a targeted tax credit for low-income earners. Which fallacy is this?

Straw man (Correct answer)
Red herring
False dilemma
Equivocation

Correct answer: Straw man

The straw man fallacy misrepresents an opponent's position to make it easier to attack.

Question 36: Argument: 'Since Andrea speaks three languages fluently, she will be an excellent translator.' What unstated assumption is the argument making?

Andrea has translated documents before.
Andrea learned all three languages in school.
Speaking multiple languages fluently is sufficient to be an excellent translator. (Correct answer)
Translation is a common career in Andrea's country.

Correct answer: Speaking multiple languages fluently is sufficient to be an excellent translator.

Translation requires not just language fluency but also subject knowledge, nuanced cultural understanding, and specialized skills not implied by speaking multiple languages.

Question 37: Statement: An assumption is something taken for granted, not proved. Statement: 'We should introduce mandatory meditation sessions at work to reduce employee burnout.' Which of the following is an assumption made in this statement?

Employees will enjoy mandatory sessions.
Burnout is caused entirely by workplace factors.
Meditation is an effective method for reducing burnout. (Correct answer)
All employees currently suffer from severe burnout.

Correct answer: Meditation is an effective method for reducing burnout.

The proposal only makes sense if meditation actually works to reduce burnout — this effectiveness is assumed.

Question 38: Of 200 applicants, only those with a bachelor's degree were shortlisted. Tom does not have a bachelor's degree. Inference: Tom was not shortlisted.

True (Correct answer)
Insufficient Data
Probably True
Probably False

Correct answer: True

A bachelor's degree was a necessary condition for shortlisting, and Tom lacks it, so he was definitively not shortlisted.

Question 39: Statement: A city park reported a 40% increase in visitors after installing new playground equipment. Inference: The new playground equipment caused the increase in park visitors. How should this inference be rated?

Insufficient Data
True
Probably True (Correct answer)
Probably False

Correct answer: Probably True

The inference is probably true because the timing suggests a causal link, though other factors (weather, events) cannot be fully ruled out.

Question 40: Passage: A study followed 1,000 adults for 20 years and found that those who reported exercising at least three times per week had a 35% lower incidence of type 2 diabetes than those who exercised less than once per week. Which conclusion is most defensible?

Three workouts per week is the medically optimal amount for everyone.
Exercise completely prevents type 2 diabetes in all populations.
Regular exercise is associated with a meaningfully lower risk of type 2 diabetes in this cohort. (Correct answer)
People who develop diabetes chose not to exercise regularly.

Correct answer: Regular exercise is associated with a meaningfully lower risk of type 2 diabetes in this cohort.

A longitudinal association supports a meaningful relationship, but cannot rule out confounders or apply universally.

Question 41: Statement: 'Dr. Patel recommends this supplement, so it must be effective.' Proposed assumption: 'Doctors never endorse ineffective products.' Is this assumption made?

Assumption not made
Assumption made (Correct answer)
The statement is circular reasoning with no assumptions
Dr. Patel's credentials are stated in the argument

Correct answer: Assumption made

The conclusion that the supplement is effective relies on assuming that a doctor's endorsement guarantees efficacy.

Question 42: A city council is debating whether to ban single-use plastic bags to reduce pollution. Which of the following arguments is the MOST relevant to the debate?

"My favorite local grocery store has already switched to paper bags, and I find them to be much more stylish."
"Several major cities in other countries have successfully implemented similar bans, resulting in a measurable decrease in plastic waste in waterways." (Correct answer)
"The mayor, who supports the ban, has a generally poor approval rating on unrelated issues like transportation and public safety."
"Manufacturing paper bags requires more water and energy than manufacturing plastic bags, so we should focus on that instead."

Correct answer: "Several major cities in other countries have successfully implemented similar bans, resulting in a measurable decrease in plastic waste in waterways."

The most relevant argument provides evidence from comparable situations that directly addresses the intended outcome of the proposal. The success of similar bans in other cities is directly related to the goal of reducing pollution. The mayor's approval rating is an irrelevant 'ad hominem' attack. A personal preference for paper bags is anecdotal and not a strong basis for a city-wide policy. While the environmental impact of paper bags is a related topic, the immediate question is about a plastic bag ban, making the data on plastic ban effectiveness most relevant.

Question 43: After reading a news article about shark attacks, a tourist decides swimming anywhere in the ocean is extremely dangerous despite statistics showing attacks are rare. This illustrates:

Availability heuristic (Correct answer)
Anchoring bias
Optimism bias
Confirmation bias

Correct answer: Availability heuristic

The availability heuristic causes people to overestimate risks based on how easily vivid examples come to mind.

Question 44: A researcher notices that as shoe size increases, reading ability also increases in a sample of children aged 3–12. The most reasonable explanation is:

Reading practice causes feet to grow
Larger feet help children read better
Age is a confounding variable driving both shoe size and reading ability (Correct answer)
The sample must be biased toward older children

Correct answer: Age is a confounding variable driving both shoe size and reading ability

Older children have both bigger feet and better reading skills, so age is the underlying confounding variable.

Question 45: Question: Should cryptocurrency be accepted as legal tender by the US government? Argument: Bitcoin's price has increased dramatically over the past decade, making early investors very wealthy. Is this a strong argument?

Yes, because profitable assets should be recognized by governments.
No, because cryptocurrency is too new to be trusted.
Yes, because proven value growth indicates financial reliability.
No, because past investment returns are irrelevant to whether a currency is suitable for use as stable legal tender. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: No, because past investment returns are irrelevant to whether a currency is suitable for use as stable legal tender.

The argument is weak because investment appreciation does not address the stability and reliability required for a legal tender currency used in everyday transactions.

Question 46: Passage: 'Every major bridge collapse in the region over the past 30 years occurred during winter months.' Inference: 'Cold weather is the primary cause of bridge collapses in the region.' How should this inference be rated?

Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Probably True
True
Probably False

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

There is insufficient data because winter brings multiple stressors (ice, heavy traffic, de-icing chemicals) and the passage does not specify which factor—if any—is primary.

Question 47: A report states: 'Countries that invest more than 6% of GDP in education consistently rank in the top 20 on international literacy assessments. Country X invests 7.2% of GDP in education but ranks 34th in literacy.' Which of the following is the BEST interpretation of this information?

Country X's education spending is being wasted entirely.
High education spending is generally associated with strong literacy outcomes, but other factors may explain Country X's lower ranking. (Correct answer)
International literacy assessments are unreliable measures of educational quality.
Country X should reduce its education spending since it is not producing results.

Correct answer: High education spending is generally associated with strong literacy outcomes, but other factors may explain Country X's lower ranking.

The general trend supports a link between spending and literacy, but Country X's deviation suggests additional factors influence outcomes beyond spending alone.

Question 48: Statement: In a study, drivers who talked on handheld phones while driving had three times more accidents than those who did not use phones. Inference: Using a handheld phone while driving increases accident risk. How should this inference be rated?

Insufficient Data
Probably True (Correct answer)
True
Probably False

Correct answer: Probably True

A threefold accident rate difference, supported by extensive prior research on distraction, makes this inference probably true.

Question 49: Statement: 'Should prisons focus more on rehabilitation than punishment?' Argument: 'Yes, because recidivism rates are lower among individuals who receive education and vocational training while incarcerated.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because prisoners deserve better treatment
Weak, because punishment has served as a deterrent for centuries
Weak, because rehabilitation programs are costly
Strong, because it provides direct empirical support for the effectiveness of the proposed approach (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Strong, because it provides direct empirical support for the effectiveness of the proposed approach

The argument is strong because it cites outcome data directly relevant to the core objective of reducing repeat offenses.

Question 50: A columnist writes: 'Anyone who supports stricter gun regulations clearly wants to abolish all gun ownership.' This misrepresentation is known as:

Straw man fallacy (Correct answer)
Slippery slope fallacy
Ad hominem fallacy
Begging the question

Correct answer: Straw man fallacy

The straw man fallacy distorts an opponent's position into an extreme version that is easier to attack.

Question 51: A news headline reads: 'New Study: People Who Exercise Live Longer.' The study was observational with no control group. The headline is best described as:

Correct only if the sample size exceeded 1,000
Accurate because observational studies are definitive
Overstated because the study cannot prove causation (Correct answer)
Misleading because exercise has no health benefits

Correct answer: Overstated because the study cannot prove causation

Without a control group, the study can only show association, not establish that exercise causes longer life.

Question 52: Question: Should companies be required to disclose their carbon emissions publicly? Argument: Transparency in corporate behavior generally leads to greater public trust in business institutions. Is this a strong argument?

No, because the argument is too general and does not specifically address why carbon emissions disclosure matters. (Correct answer)
Yes, because public trust is the most important corporate goal.
No, because companies already report emissions voluntarily.
Yes, because transparency always improves outcomes.

Correct answer: No, because the argument is too general and does not specifically address why carbon emissions disclosure matters.

The argument is weak because it relies on a broad generalization about transparency rather than addressing the specific value of disclosing carbon emissions.

Question 53: INFERENCE: A restaurant received five consecutive 5-star reviews online. Which inference is MOST justified?

Recent customers have been highly satisfied with the restaurant. (Correct answer)
The restaurant is the best in the city.
The restaurant will maintain 5-star reviews forever.
The reviews were definitely written by real customers.

Correct answer: Recent customers have been highly satisfied with the restaurant.

Five consecutive positive reviews justifiably suggest recent customer satisfaction, without overstating certainty about rank or authenticity.

Question 54: Statement: All birds in the aviary are either parrots or finches. This bird is not a parrot. Conclusion: This bird is a finch.

The conclusion follows (Correct answer)
The conclusion does not follow
The conclusion is probably true
The conclusion requires more evidence

Correct answer: The conclusion follows

Since the bird must be either a parrot or a finch, and it is not a parrot, it must be a finch.

Question 55: Statement: All employees who completed the training program received a certificate. Maria received a certificate. Which inference is most justified?

Maria may or may not have completed the training program (Correct answer)
Maria completed the training program and excelled
Maria received the certificate by mistake
Maria definitely completed the training program

Correct answer: Maria may or may not have completed the training program

The statement tells us certificate-holders completed the program, but Maria's certificate could have come from another source not mentioned.

Question 56: Passage: In a debate class, students who spoke last in each round won 65% of judges' decisions. The teacher infers that speaking last gives a competitive advantage. This inference is: A) Probably true — recency effect in memory can favor the last speaker. B) Certainly true — 65% is a definitive majority that proves an advantage. C) Insufficient data — stronger debaters may systematically choose or be assigned the last speaking slot. D) False — speaking order never affects judging outcomes.

False — speaking order never affects judging outcomes.
Certainly true — 65% is a definitive majority that proves an advantage.
Insufficient data — stronger debaters may systematically choose or be assigned the last speaking slot. (Correct answer)
Probably true — recency effect in memory can favor the last speaker.

Correct answer: Insufficient data — stronger debaters may systematically choose or be assigned the last speaking slot.

If more skilled debaters tend to speak last (by choice or assignment), the win rate would reflect skill rather than speaking order, making the causal inference unjustified.

Question 57: Argument: 'This country needs more hospitals because its population has grown significantly over the last decade.' What unstated assumption is this making?

Hospitals are more expensive to build now than they were a decade ago.
The government is responsible for building hospitals.
The existing hospital capacity was sufficient for the previous population size but is now insufficient for the larger population. (Correct answer)
Population growth is always accompanied by increased infectious disease.

Correct answer: The existing hospital capacity was sufficient for the previous population size but is now insufficient for the larger population.

The argument assumes that existing hospital capacity matched previous needs and that the population increase has created a shortfall — if hospitals were already over-capacity or under-capacity previously, the argument changes.

Question 58: A report states that countries with higher chocolate consumption per capita have more Nobel Prize winners per capita. What is the most reasonable interpretation?

All Nobel Prize winners eat large amounts of chocolate.
Chocolate consumption improves cognitive ability and leads to Nobel Prizes.
Increasing chocolate sales in a country will increase its Nobel laureates.
There is a statistical correlation between chocolate consumption and Nobel Prizes in this data. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: There is a statistical correlation between chocolate consumption and Nobel Prizes in this data.

This is a classic spurious correlation; the data shows a statistical relationship, not a causal one.

Question 59: Passage: A survey of 500 college freshmen found that 78% who had taken AP courses in high school reported feeling 'well-prepared' for college coursework, compared to 45% of those who had not. Which conclusion follows from this data?

Students without AP courses will fail their first year of college.
AP courses are the only path to feeling prepared for college.
AP course participation is strongly linked to feelings of college preparedness. (Correct answer)
College professors prefer students who took AP courses.

Correct answer: AP course participation is strongly linked to feelings of college preparedness.

The survey data supports a link between AP participation and self-reported preparedness, without justifying absolute or causal conclusions.

Question 60: Premise: All managers in Department A received a performance bonus. Premise: Leon received a performance bonus. Conclusion: Leon is a manager in Department A. Does the conclusion follow?

Only if Leon's name is on the bonus list
Yes, because only Department A managers get bonuses
No, the conclusion does not follow (Correct answer)
Yes, if Department A is the only department

Correct answer: No, the conclusion does not follow

The bonus could have been received for reasons other than being a Department A manager; the premises do not rule that out.

Question 61: Data indicates that students in smaller class sizes (under 20) outperformed those in larger classes (over 30) on standardized tests by an average of 12 points. What is an over-interpretation of this data?

Reducing class sizes guarantees every student's test scores will improve. (Correct answer)
There is a difference in test performance linked to class size in the data.
Class size appears related to student performance in standardized testing.
Students in smaller classes scored higher on average in this dataset.

Correct answer: Reducing class sizes guarantees every student's test scores will improve.

Guaranteeing individual improvement for every student goes well beyond what group average data can support.

Question 62: A chart shows that coffee shop sales peak between 7 AM and 9 AM on weekdays. A manager infers that most customers are commuters grabbing coffee on the way to work. This is: A) A fact because peak hours align with typical commute times. B) A fact because coffee shops near offices always serve commuters. C) An inference because the chart does not identify who the customers are or their reasons for visiting. D) An inference only if the shop is not located near a transit hub.

An inference only if the shop is not located near a transit hub.
An inference because the chart does not identify who the customers are or their reasons for visiting. (Correct answer)
A fact because peak hours align with typical commute times.
A fact because coffee shops near offices always serve commuters.

Correct answer: An inference because the chart does not identify who the customers are or their reasons for visiting.

The chart shows when sales peak but provides no information about customer identity or motive; attributing the pattern to commuters is an inference.

Question 63: A public health researcher wants to determine whether a new vaccine causes a rare side effect. Which study design provides the strongest causal evidence?

A review of news reports about the side effect following vaccine rollout.
A case study of one patient who developed the side effect after vaccination.
A survey asking vaccinated patients whether they experienced the side effect.
A randomized controlled trial assigning participants to vaccine or placebo groups and monitoring side effects. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: A randomized controlled trial assigning participants to vaccine or placebo groups and monitoring side effects.

Randomized controlled trials minimize confounding and establish temporal precedence, making them the gold standard for causal inference.

Question 64: Premises: Some teachers are also researchers. All researchers publish papers. Conclusion: All teachers publish papers.

The conclusion does not follow (Correct answer)
The conclusion is possibly true
The conclusion is supported by the first premise alone
The conclusion follows

Correct answer: The conclusion does not follow

Only some teachers are researchers, so only those teacher-researchers must publish papers; the rest may not.

Question 65: A CEO announces: 'Our product received 4.8 out of 5 stars across 10,000 reviews.' A stakeholder then concludes: 'Customers love this product.' Which best describes these two statements?

The CEO's statement is a fact; the stakeholder's is an inference. (Correct answer)
The CEO's statement is an inference; the stakeholder's is a fact.
Both are inferences because reviews reflect subjective opinion.
Both are facts because reviews are measurable data.

Correct answer: The CEO's statement is a fact; the stakeholder's is an inference.

The star rating and review count are verifiable data; 'customers love the product' interprets sentiment beyond what the numbers strictly prove.

Question 66: Question: Should governments impose taxes on sugary beverages? Argument: Yes, because similar taxes on tobacco have successfully reduced smoking rates. This argument is:

Strong, because all unhealthy products should be taxed to discourage consumption
Strong, because it draws on a directly analogous, empirically successful policy precedent (Correct answer)
Weak, because tobacco and sugary drinks are fundamentally different products with different health impacts
Weak, because consumers will simply switch to other unhealthy beverages if taxed

Correct answer: Strong, because it draws on a directly analogous, empirically successful policy precedent

The argument is strong because it cites a closely analogous policy (tobacco tax) with documented success in changing consumption behavior, providing relevant empirical support for the proposal.

Question 67: Data shows that ice cream sales and drowning rates both peak in summer. The best interpretation is:

Ice cream consumption causes drowning
Both variables share a common cause—hot weather and increased outdoor activity (Correct answer)
Drowning causes people to buy more ice cream
Summer data is always unreliable

Correct answer: Both variables share a common cause—hot weather and increased outdoor activity

A lurking variable (summer heat and outdoor activity) drives both trends, making direct causation between them implausible.

Question 68: Statement: 'Should US colleges be required to admit students without considering standardized test scores?' Argument: 'No, because my grandfather scored very highly on the SAT and it helped him get into a good school.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Weak, because the grandfather's school may have dropped test requirements
Weak, because one anecdote is not a substantive policy reason (Correct answer)
Strong, because personal experience reflects real outcomes
Strong, because family educational history is relevant to admissions policy

Correct answer: Weak, because one anecdote is not a substantive policy reason

A single personal anecdote is not a strong argument; it lacks the breadth and objectivity needed to support a national admissions policy.

Question 69: Statement: 'The best way to learn a new language is through immersion.' Proposed assumption: Immersion is more effective than all other language-learning methods for every learner. Is this assumption MADE or NOT MADE?

Made
Partially Made
Not Made (Correct answer)
Cannot Determine

Correct answer: Not Made

The assumption is NOT made; saying immersion is the 'best way' is a general claim, not that it is universally superior for every individual.

Question 70: A manager notices that the team members who work remotely complete 20% more tasks per week than those in the office, but remote workers log 10 more hours weekly. Which conclusion is best supported?

Remote work makes employees more productive per hour worked
Office environments are toxic and should be eliminated
The higher task completion by remote workers may be partly explained by longer working hours (Correct answer)
Remote workers are more dedicated employees than office workers

Correct answer: The higher task completion by remote workers may be partly explained by longer working hours

The additional hours worked could account for some or all of the increased task output, so productivity per hour may not differ.

Question 71: A restaurant chain added a 'heart-healthy' menu section. Those items now make up 22% of all orders, yet overall restaurant revenue declined 8% compared to the prior year. Which inference is MOST warranted?

Restaurants that add healthy options will consistently experience a decline in total revenue
The healthy section attracted measurable customer interest, but the cause of the overall revenue decline remains uncertain (Correct answer)
Customers clearly prefer healthy food options over traditional menu items
The healthy menu section is the direct and primary cause of the revenue decline

Correct answer: The healthy section attracted measurable customer interest, but the cause of the overall revenue decline remains uncertain

The 22% order share confirms real customer interest in the healthy items, yet the 8% revenue drop has no proven link to that addition — other factors (pricing, competition, economic conditions) could be responsible. Option A overstates a preference claim; Option B asserts causation the data does not establish; Option D generalizes to all restaurants from a single case.

Question 72: When assessing whether an argument is biased, which question is MOST analytically useful to ask?

Does the argument rely on a non-representative or one-sided set of evidence? (Correct answer)
Does the argument cite at least three sources?
Does the argument use technical vocabulary?
Is the argument structured in bullet points?

Correct answer: Does the argument rely on a non-representative or one-sided set of evidence?

Checking whether evidence is one-sided or comes from an unrepresentative sample is central to identifying bias in reasoning.

Question 73: Question: Should the voting age in the US be lowered to 16? Argument: At 16, individuals can drive a car and pay taxes on employment income in many states. Is this a strong argument?

Yes, because any citizen who pays taxes should vote.
No, because driving and voting are entirely different activities.
Yes, because it draws a relevant parallel between existing civic responsibilities and the right to vote. (Correct answer)
No, because 16-year-olds are not mature enough to vote.

Correct answer: Yes, because it draws a relevant parallel between existing civic responsibilities and the right to vote.

The argument is strong because it relevantly points out that 16-year-olds already bear civic responsibilities, supporting the case for extending voting rights.

Question 74: Premise: Only employees with security clearance may access Level 3 files. Premise: Janelle accessed Level 3 files. Conclusion: Janelle has security clearance. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion does not follow — Janelle may have accessed them accidentally.
The conclusion follows only if Janelle is a full-time employee.
The conclusion does not follow — security systems can be bypassed.
The conclusion follows — only cleared employees can access Level 3 files, so Janelle must be cleared. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The conclusion follows — only cleared employees can access Level 3 files, so Janelle must be cleared.

Since access to Level 3 files is restricted exclusively to cleared employees and Janelle accessed them, she must have clearance.

Question 75: A recent study found that employees who work remotely at least three days per week report 25% higher job satisfaction than those who work entirely in-office. However, remote workers also report feeling less connected to their colleagues. Based on this information, which inference is MOST justified?

Job satisfaction depends on more than just work location (Correct answer)
Companies that offer remote work will always retain more employees
Remote workers are more productive than in-office workers
Remote work should be mandatory for all employees

Correct answer: Job satisfaction depends on more than just work location

The passage shows remote work increases satisfaction but decreases connection, indicating multiple factors influence overall job satisfaction.

Question 76: Some individuals believe that both males and girls exhibit the same amount of empathy. However, a recent study discovered that in lab conditions, girls typically exhibit greater empathy. Even at an early age, it is probable that there are gender variations in empathy, but there may be other factors at work. The study's findings may be explained by gender-based variations in personality traits or by how the individuals were raised to act in particular social contexts. In a recent study, conducted in a lab setting, it was discovered that girls exhibit greater empathy than guys.

More information is required
Probably True
True (Correct answer)
False
Probably false

Correct answer: True

Explanation: In the chapter, it is mentioned that a recent study has discovered that in lab conditions, girls exhibit higher levels of empathy than boys do.

Question 77: A company proposes to cut costs by outsourcing its customer service department to a third-party firm overseas. The stated goals are to reduce operational expenses and maintain the current level of customer satisfaction. Which argument is the WEAKEST and least relevant?

"A recent survey of our customers revealed that 85% prefer to speak with a customer service agent based in their own country."
"The CEO of our main competitor said in an interview that he would never consider outsourcing because it's unpatriotic." (Correct answer)
"An internal analysis shows that outsourcing would reduce departmental costs by 40% within the first year."
"The third-party firm has a 92% customer satisfaction rating with its other clients in our industry."

Correct answer: "The CEO of our main competitor said in an interview that he would never consider outsourcing because it's unpatriotic."

This argument is weak because it relies on the opinion of an external party (a competitor's CEO) and appeals to emotion ('unpatriotic') rather than providing data relevant to the company's specific goals of cost reduction and customer satisfaction. The other arguments are all strong and directly relevant as they provide data on cost savings, customer preferences, and the potential partner's performance.

Question 78: A manager concludes: 'Sales dropped 15% last quarter, so our marketing strategy must be failing.' The phrase 'must be failing' represents:

A fact because it follows from the sales data.
An inference because other causes could explain the drop. (Correct answer)
A hypothesis that has been experimentally confirmed.
A value judgment about marketing effectiveness.

Correct answer: An inference because other causes could explain the drop.

Attributing the drop specifically to marketing failure goes beyond what the sales data alone establishes.

Question 79: Statement: In a controlled study, 100 tomato plants were divided into two groups. Group A was grown with a new liquid fertilizer, while Group B was grown with only water. All other conditions (sunlight, soil, temperature) were identical. After 12 weeks, the average plant in Group A was 30% taller and produced 40% more fruit than the average plant in Group B. Inference: The new liquid fertilizer is effective at improving tomato plant growth and yield under the tested conditions.

The inference is definitely true.
The inference is definitely false.
The inference is probably true. (Correct answer)
There is insufficient data to make a determination.

Correct answer: The inference is probably true.

The inference is 'Probably True'. The experiment was well-controlled, isolating the fertilizer as the key variable. The significant positive results in Group A strongly support the conclusion that the fertilizer is effective. It is not 'Definitely True' because in scientific contexts, a single study provides strong evidence but not absolute certainty; results typically need to be replicated. However, based solely on the information provided, the inference is highly probable.

Question 80: Premise: Either the server is overloaded or the network is down. Premise: The server is not overloaded. Conclusion: The network is down. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion follows — eliminating one disjunct in an either/or statement forces the other. (Correct answer)
The conclusion does not follow — other causes of the problem exist.
The conclusion does not follow — both conditions could be false simultaneously.
The conclusion follows only if both causes were active previously.

Correct answer: The conclusion follows — eliminating one disjunct in an either/or statement forces the other.

An 'either/or' premise guarantees at least one is true; ruling out the server being overloaded means the network must be down.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal

The Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal exam validates essential knowledge and skills required for certification or licensure in this field.

Questions

60 min

Time Limit

65%

To Pass

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