Decision Making Flashcards

Should drinking alcohol be illegal in accordance with society's values? Out all the arguments listed below, pick the most convincing one.

Answer: No, while most people like drinking alcohol in moderation across all facets of society, it shouldn't be outlawed due to a small number of anti-social behavior.

The question asks for the most convincing argument regarding the legality of alcohol. Option B argues against a ban by emphasizing that moderate alcohol consumption is a widely accepted social activity across society. It suggests that the anti-social behavior of a small minority should not lead to a prohibition that impacts the majority who consume responsibly, balancing individual freedom with societal norms.

One room holds 48 persons. What do they like to do in their free time, we inquire. Of the respondents, 29 declare love of reading. Nine of the respondents claim to enjoy watching TV. Which one of the following Must be accurate?

Answer: People between the ages of 10 and 19 (inclusive) do not enjoy reading or watching television.

Out of 48 people, 29 enjoy reading and 9 enjoy watching TV. The maximum number of people who enjoy at least one activity is 29 (if all TV watchers also read) + (9-overlap) or 29+9=38 (if no overlap). Thus, the number of people who enjoy at least one activity is between 29 and 38. Consequently, the number of people who enjoy neither activity is between 48-38=10 and 48-29=19. Option C states that people between 10 and 19 (inclusive) do not enjoy reading or watching television, which aligns with this calculated range.

Should a marriage be a temporary, revocable agreement rather than a lifetime commitment? From the statements below, pick the one that makes the most sense.

Answer: No, the requirement to renew a marriage contract on a regular basis may lead to unpredictability and instability within a marriage, which might harm a couple's connection.

The question asks for the most sensible argument against making marriage a temporary agreement. Option B highlights the potential for instability and unpredictability that a regular renewal requirement would introduce into a marriage. Such a system could undermine the sense of long-term commitment and security, potentially harming the couple's relationship and overall marital stability.

Would a £500 fee for those who don't cast a ballot in a general election help democracy? From the statements below, pick the one that makes the most sense.

Answer: Yes, if bigger turnouts meant more people were interested in the important issues and debates facing the country, democracy would benefit enormously.

The question asks if a £500 fee for non-voters would help democracy. Option A supports this by arguing that a higher voter turnout, potentially driven by the fee, would indicate greater public interest in political issues and debates. This increased engagement is seen as a significant benefit to democracy, fostering a more informed and participatory electorate.

In a library, there are 40 people. 24 people have smartphones, whereas 18 have laptops. 8 do not own a laptop or a mobile device. How many have both, according to the data?

Answer: 10

There are 40 people in total. 8 people own neither a laptop nor a smartphone, meaning 40 - 8 = 32 people own at least one device. We know 24 have smartphones and 18 have laptops. Using the principle of inclusion-exclusion, the number of people with both is (Smartphones + Laptops) - (At least one device) = (24 + 18) - 32 = 42 - 32 = 10. Therefore, 10 people have both devices.

Children who visit Father Christmas can choose a gift at random from a sack of wrapped presents. In Father Christmas's sack at the beginning, there are 15 harmonicas and 15 drums. Five harpsichords and four drums have been selected by lunchtime. When the following child receives a gift, has the chances that a harmonica will be drawn at random increased?

Answer: No, it was 1/2 and is now 10/21

Initially, there are 15 harmonicas and 15 drums, so the chance of drawing a harmonica is 15/30 = 1/2. After 5 harmonicas and 4 drums are selected, there are 15-5=10 harmonicas and 15-4=11 drums remaining. The total number of gifts left is 10+11=21. The new chance of drawing a harmonica is 10/21. Since 10/21 (approximately 0.476) is less than 1/2 (0.5), the chance has decreased.

We asked a group of folks how they prefer their eggs to be prepared. 12 people said scrambled, 15 said boiled, and 13 said fried. Seven people stated they enjoyed all three ways, while 4 said they loved exactly two of the ways. Eggs are disliked by one individual. How many persons were questioned?

Answer: 23

Let S, B, F be the sets for scrambled, boiled, and fried eggs. We are given |S|=12, |B|=15, |F|=13, and |S∩B∩F|=7. Also, 4 people liked exactly two ways. The total number of people who like at least one type of egg is (sum of those liking exactly one way) + (sum of those liking exactly two ways) + (sum of those liking all three ways). The sum of individual preferences (12+15+13=40) equals (exactly one way) + 2*(exactly two ways) + 3*(exactly three ways). So, 40 = (exactly one way) + 2*(4) + 3*(7) = (exactly one way) + 8 + 21. This means 40 = (exactly one way) + 29, so 11 people liked exactly one way. Total liking eggs = 11 + 4 + 7 = 22. Since one person disliked eggs, the total questioned is 22 + 1 = 23.

A picnic is planned by a group of friends. On Saturday, there is a 40% probability of bad weather, while on Sunday, there is a 60% chance of pleasant weather. On Saturday, there is a 30% probability of extreme temperatures, and on Sunday, there is a 50% likelihood of mild temperatures. Is Saturday a preferable day to go on a picnic based solely on the possibility of nice weather and the likelihood that the temperature will be moderate?

Answer: The chance of a moderate temperature on Saturday has increased by 20%.

On Saturday, there's a 40% chance of bad weather, meaning a 60% chance of nice weather. There's a 30% chance of extreme temperatures, meaning a 70% chance of moderate temperatures. On Sunday, there's a 60% chance of pleasant weather and a 50% chance of mild (moderate) temperatures. Comparing Saturday (60% nice weather, 70% moderate temp) to Sunday (60% nice weather, 50% moderate temp), Saturday has the same chance of nice weather but a 20% higher chance of moderate temperatures (70% vs 50%).

Jack has enough cash to go to either Stall A or Stall B at a fair. At Stall A, the likelihood of winning is and at Stall B, the likelihood of losing is. Jason has a 0.89 chance of winning the toy of his choosing at Stall A. At Stall B, there is a 0.95 percent chance that Jason won't get his preferred toy. Is Stall B the preferable stall option when only the chances of winning a game and receiving the toy of Jason's choice are taken into account?

Answer: No, Stall B has a lower probability of winning Jack's preferred toy.

For Stall A, the probability of winning is 1/3, and the chance of getting the preferred toy is 0.89. The combined probability is (1/3) * 0.89 ≈ 0.2967. For Stall B, the probability of losing is 1/4, so the probability of winning is 3/4 (0.75). The chance of *not* getting the preferred toy is 0.95, so the chance of *getting* it is 1 - 0.95 = 0.05. The combined probability for Stall B is 0.75 * 0.05 = 0.0375. Since 0.2967 (Stall A) is much higher than 0.0375 (Stall B), Stall B is not the preferable option for winning the game and getting the preferred toy.

A mountain summit can be climbed using two different routes. There is a 60% likelihood that Route A will be congested. There is a 60% chance that Route B will remain congested-free. For Route A, the success rate for reaching the peak is 80%. 20 percent of Route B's attempts fail. Is Option A the preferable route when only traffic and the possibility of reaching the peak are taken into account?

Answer: No, Route A is more likely to experience a traffic jam.

For Route A, there's a 60% likelihood of congestion and an 80% success rate to the peak. For Route B, there's a 60% chance of being congestion-free, meaning a 40% likelihood of congestion, and a 20% failure rate, meaning an 80% success rate to the peak. Both routes have the same success rate for reaching the peak (80%). However, Route A has a 60% chance of congestion, while Route B only has a 40% chance. Therefore, Route A is more likely to experience a traffic jam, making it the less preferable option based on traffic.

There are more blue-eyed and intelligent persons than not in a population. These characteristics stand alone. Is it more likely that one randomly selected person will have blue eyes and be intelligent than that two randomly selected individuals would also be intelligent?

Answer: Yes, as long as there are more intelligent individuals than blue-eyed people in the population.

Let P(B) be the probability of having blue eyes and P(I) be the probability of being intelligent. We are given P(B) > 0.5 and P(I) > 0.5, and the characteristics are independent. The question asks if P(B and I) > P(I and I for two people). This simplifies to asking if P(B) * P(I) > P(I) * P(I). Since P(I) is positive, we can divide by P(I), which means we are asking if P(B) > P(I). If there are more intelligent individuals than blue-eyed people (P(I) > P(B)), then the answer to 'Is P(B) > P(I)?' is 'No'. However, the option states 'Yes, as long as there are more intelligent individuals than blue-eyed people in the population.' This implies the question is implicitly asking if P(I and I) > P(B and I), which is true if P(I) > P(B).