Decision Making Practice Flashcards

All qualified paramedics on the ambulance rota have completed advanced trauma training. Zara has completed advanced trauma training. Which conclusion follows logically?

Answer: Zara might or might not be a qualified paramedic on the rota

The premise only says paramedics have the training, not that everyone with the training is a paramedic (affirming the consequent), so we cannot conclude Zara is one - only that it's possible.

A hospital reports that 70% of patients who receive Treatment X recover within a week, and 90% of patients who receive Treatment Y recover within a week. A patient recovered within a week. Which is the strongest valid conclusion?

Answer: No conclusion can be drawn about which treatment was used

Without knowing how many patients received each treatment overall (the base rates), we cannot determine the probability of which treatment a recovered patient received - this requires Bayesian reasoning with base rates, which are not given.

A hiring manager states: 'Every strong candidate we've shortlisted this year has at least two years of clinical experience.' Ben has three years of clinical experience but was not shortlisted. What is the most logical explanation consistent with the manager's statement?

Answer: Having two years of experience alone does not guarantee being shortlisted as strong

The statement only says shortlisted candidates have experience (necessary condition), not that all experienced people are shortlisted (which would be a false converse). Ben not being shortlisted is fully consistent with this.

In a bag there are 4 red, 3 blue, and 3 green tokens. One token is drawn at random and not replaced, then a second token is drawn. What is the probability that both tokens are red?

Answer: 4/10 x 3/9 = 12/90

P(first red) = 4/10. After removing one red token without replacement, P(second red) = 3/9. Multiply: 4/10 x 3/9 = 12/90 = 2/15.

Statement: 'Either the ward is understaffed, or the discharge process is delayed - possibly both.' It is confirmed the discharge process is NOT delayed. What must be true?

Answer: The ward is understaffed

This is an inclusive 'or' (possibly both), so if one disjunct (delayed discharge) is false, the other disjunct (understaffed ward) must be true for the original statement to hold.

A clinic wants to reduce missed appointments. Option A: send SMS reminders (historically reduces no-shows by 25%, costs low). Option B: charge a small deposit (historically reduces no-shows by 40%, costs administrative overhead and may deter low-income patients). Which conclusion is best supported by weighing these trade-offs alone?

Answer: Option B reduces no-shows more but carries an equity trade-off that must be weighed against the goal

Weighing conflicting factors (effectiveness vs. equity/cost) rather than picking an absolute winner reflects correct UCAT-style balanced judgement - neither option is 'always' or 'strictly' better once side effects are considered.