Research Methods & Evidence-Based Practice Flashcards

Which of the following best describes 'external validity' in retirement income research?

Answer: The extent to which study findings can be generalized to other populations or settings

External validity concerns generalizability—whether conclusions drawn from the study sample apply to broader real-world populations.

A dynamic withdrawal strategy research study finds statistically significant results with a very large sample. An RMA adviser should recognize that statistical significance:

Answer: Does not necessarily indicate the effect is large enough to be practically meaningful

With large samples, even trivially small effects become statistically significant; effect size must be evaluated separately from p-values.

In reviewing longevity risk research, a study uses 'survival analysis.' This methodology is designed to:

Answer: Model time-to-event data (such as time until death or portfolio depletion) accounting for censored observations

Survival analysis models the time until a specific event occurs (e.g., death or ruin) and properly handles cases where the event hasn't yet occurred (censoring).

When comparing two retirement income strategies using back-testing, the primary concern is:

Answer: Overfitting to historical data, which may not reflect future conditions

Back-testing can produce strategies that are optimized ('overfit') to historical data quirks, leading to inflated performance expectations that may not persist.

The Gordon Growth Model is used in evidence-based retirement research primarily to:

Answer: Estimate the long-run expected return on equities based on dividend yield and earnings growth

The Gordon Growth Model (dividend yield + earnings growth) provides a forward-looking estimate of expected equity returns used in capital market assumptions.

A researcher studying retirement outcomes uses a convenience sample of attendees at a financial planning seminar. The major limitation is:

Answer: Seminar attendees may not be representative of the broader retiree population, reducing external validity

Convenience samples introduce selection bias because participants self-select into the group, making findings difficult to generalize to all retirees.

The Trinity Study's recommendation on sustainable withdrawal rates was based on which primary outcome measure?

Answer: Portfolio success rate—the percentage of historical periods where the portfolio lasted the full period

The Trinity Study defined success as portfolio survival over the specified period and reported success rates for various withdrawal rates and asset allocations.