Intelligence Analyst Flashcards

An analyst reads: 'The shipment likely departed before customs review.' Which word signals an analytic judgment rather than a confirmed fact?

Answer: Likely

'Likely' is an estimative term conveying probability rather than certainty.

Which collection discipline refers to intelligence derived from intercepted signals and communications?

Answer: SIGINT

SIGINT (signals intelligence) is gathered from intercepted communications and electronic signals.

An analyst identifies a pattern but cannot determine cause. Which statement is most analytically sound?

Answer: The pattern is noted, but causation requires further evidence

Observing correlation does not establish causation without additional supporting evidence.

A report contains the sequence 3, 6, 12, 24, ___. What is the next number?

Answer: 48

Each term doubles the previous one, so 24 doubled is 48.

Why is it important for an analyst to clearly separate facts from assumptions in a written product?

Answer: So consumers can judge the basis and reliability of the conclusions

Distinguishing facts from assumptions lets decision-makers evaluate how well-grounded the judgments are.

An analyst discovers that two trusted sources actually obtained their information from the same original report. What problem does this create?

Answer: Circular reporting that overstates reliability

Circular reporting occurs when one source is mistaken for multiple, falsely inflating confidence.

Which action best protects the integrity of an analytic product when new contradicting evidence emerges after publication?

Answer: Issue an update reassessing the judgment in light of the new evidence

Sound analytic tradecraft requires revisiting and updating judgments when significant new evidence appears.