Inference and Assumption Flashcards

Statement: 'The Department for Education has allocated an additional £500 million to school building repairs following a survey that found 38% of school buildings have significant structural deficiencies.' Which inference is most strongly supported?

Answer: The government considers school building conditions to be a serious issue requiring investment

Allocating £500 million in response to the survey findings strongly suggests the government views the issue as serious enough to warrant significant investment. The other inferences go beyond what the statement supports — we cannot know if the sum is sufficient, who conducted the survey, or whether all buildings will be repaired.

Statement: 'The Civil Service has introduced blind recruitment for all Fast Stream applications, removing candidates' names, universities, and school qualifications from initial sift assessments.' What assumption underlies this policy?

Answer: Assessors may be unconsciously influenced by personal information when evaluating candidates

Blind recruitment is designed to remove information that could trigger unconscious bias. The underlying assumption is that assessors may be influenced — consciously or unconsciously — by names, university prestige, or school background when making sift decisions. This is a well-established finding in recruitment research.

Statement: 'Following the introduction of mandatory cyber security training, the number of successful phishing attacks on government systems decreased by 60% within six months.' What can be most safely inferred?

Answer: The training appears to have contributed to improved staff awareness of phishing threats

The most cautious and well-supported inference is that the training contributed to improvement. While the correlation is strong, we cannot definitively say it is the sole cause (other measures may have been implemented simultaneously), nor that staff are fully protected or attacks have ceased.

Statement: 'The Ministry of Defence spends more on external consultants per year than any other government department, despite having the largest in-house analytical capability.' What assumption would someone need to make to conclude this spending is wasteful?

Answer: The in-house analytical capability should be sufficient to handle the work currently given to consultants

To conclude the spending is wasteful, one must assume the in-house team could do the consultants' work — i.e., the internal capability is sufficient. Without this assumption, there may be legitimate reasons for external consultants (specialist skills, capacity constraints, independent assurance) despite having large in-house teams.

Statement: 'The Government Property Agency has reduced its London office estate by 40% since 2020, moving towards a hub-based model with shared workspaces outside the capital.' Which inference is best supported?

Answer: The government believes it can maintain operations with less dedicated London office space

The reduction in London office space whilst moving to hubs and shared workspaces strongly implies the government believes it can function effectively with less London space. The other options go too far — we don't know about cost savings, total relocation, or permanent home working from this statement alone.

Statement: 'HMRC has introduced Making Tax Digital, requiring businesses above the VAT threshold to submit quarterly digital returns instead of annual paper returns.' What is the underlying assumption of this policy?

Answer: Digital quarterly reporting improves tax compliance and accuracy compared to annual paper reporting

The policy shift from annual paper to quarterly digital assumes that digital quarterly reporting produces better outcomes — improved compliance, accuracy, and timeliness — compared to the previous system. This is the core justification for mandating the change.