Risk Analysis Flashcards

A CAM's Estimate at Completion should reflect risk exposure. Which practice BEST accomplishes this?

Answer: Including the expected cost of probable risks and remaining opportunities in the most likely EAC

A credible EAC incorporates known risks and opportunities, not just historical performance indices.

Which term describes a positive risk that could improve cost or schedule performance if it occurs?

Answer: Opportunity

Opportunities are uncertain events with potential beneficial outcomes and are managed alongside threats.

During an Integrated Baseline Review (IBR), what is a primary risk-related objective?

Answer: Assessing whether the baseline realistically captures technical, schedule, and cost risks

The IBR evaluates baseline realism and mutual understanding of the risks inherent in the plan.

A risk analysis output states there is an 80% confidence of completing the control account at or below $1.2M. What does this represent?

Answer: A confidence level from a probabilistic cost estimate

Confidence levels express the probability that actual cost will not exceed a stated value in a probabilistic distribution.

A CAM chooses to take no proactive action on a low-probability, low-impact risk but continues to monitor it. Which response is this?

Answer: Passive acceptance

Passive acceptance means acknowledging the risk and acting only if it occurs, while keeping it under watch.

Which factor MOST directly determines whether a risk should be escalated above the control account level?

Answer: The risk's potential impact exceeds the CAM's authority or crosses control account boundaries

Risks are escalated when their scope or impact exceeds the CAM's span of control or authority.

In a schedule risk analysis, what does 'merge bias' refer to?

Answer: The tendency for schedule delays to compound where multiple parallel paths converge at a milestone

At merge points, the milestone waits on the latest of all converging paths, increasing the chance of delay.