AZSCI Crosscutting: Cause and Effect 2

Question 1

In a complex ecological system, a sudden increase in the population of a primary predator leads to a decrease in its main prey.
This, in turn, causes a decline in a scavenger species that relies on the predator's leftover kills.
The decline of the scavenger then allows a specific type of fungus, which the scavenger used to disturb, to flourish.
This chain of events is best described as an example of:

Accepted Answer

An indirect cause-and-effect relationship.

Answer

A simple, linear cause-and-effect relationship.

Answer

A positive feedback loop.

Answer

A relationship of correlation, not causation.

Question 2

A scientist observes that in a particular forest, years with higher-than-average spring rainfall are followed by summers with a greater number of wildfires. Which of the following describes a plausible mechanism that would establish this correlation as a cause-and-effect relationship, rather than a simple coincidence?

Accepted Answer

The abundant spring rain leads to rapid growth of underbrush, which then dries out in the summer, providing more fuel for fires.

Answer

The rainfall and wildfires are independent events influenced by separate, large-scale climate patterns.

Answer

The increased rainfall directly causes lightning, which is the primary ignition source for the fires.

Answer

Local residents are more likely to be careless with campfires in years with heavy spring rain.

Question 3

In climate science, a 'positive feedback loop' is a specific type of cause-and-effect relationship. Which of the following scenarios best illustrates a positive feedback loop?

Accepted Answer

Melting of Arctic sea ice exposes darker ocean water, which absorbs more solar radiation, leading to further warming and more ice melt.

Answer

Increased global temperatures cause more evaporation, leading to more clouds, which reflect sunlight and cause cooling.

Answer

A thermostat senses a room is too hot and activates the air conditioner, which cools the room back to the set temperature.

Answer

Increased atmospheric CO2 causes plants to grow faster, absorbing more CO2 from the atmosphere.

Question 4

Some cause-and-effect relationships in complex systems, like quantum mechanics or genetics, can only be described using probability. This is known as probabilistic causation. How does this differ from deterministic causation?

Accepted Answer

In probabilistic causation, a cause is not guaranteed to produce the effect every time, but it increases the likelihood of the effect occurring.

Answer

Probabilistic causation applies only to designed systems, while deterministic causation applies to natural systems.

Answer

Deterministic causation means the effect happens before the cause, whereas probabilistic causation is the reverse.

Answer

Probabilistic causation is a disproven theory, and all true causal relationships are deterministic.

Question 5

In a non-linear system, the relationship between cause and effect is not proportional. Which of the following is the best example of a non-linear cause-and-effect relationship?

Accepted Answer

Adding a single grain of sand to a stable sandpile has no effect, but adding that same grain later causes a massive avalanche.

Answer

Pushing a toy car with twice the force causes it to accelerate at twice the rate.

Answer

For every hour of sunlight a solar panel receives, it generates a consistent amount of electricity.

Answer

Doubling the amount of water you drink will double the volume of water you have consumed.

Question 6

Which of the following statements most accurately describes the challenge of establishing causation in complex, multi-variable systems?

Accepted Answer

The presence of multiple interacting variables and feedback loops can make it difficult to isolate a specific cause for a particular effect.

Answer

Causation is impossible to determine; scientists can only identify correlations.

Answer

In complex systems, an effect always has a single, easily identifiable cause.

Answer

Cause-and-effect relationships in complex systems are always immediate and direct, never delayed or indirect.