Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Critical Thinking Appraisal Distinguishing Facts from Inferences 1 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A hospital records show that the average patient wait time in the emergency room increased from 45 minutes to 67 minutes over the past year. A hospital administrator concludes that the nursing staff is underperforming. Which statement best describes the administrator's conclusion?
- It is a verifiable fact supported directly by the data presented.
- It is an inference that goes beyond what the data actually shows. (Correct answer)
- It is a fact because wait times are objective measurements.
- It is neither a fact nor an inference, but a policy recommendation.
Correct answer: It is an inference that goes beyond what the data actually shows.
The data only establishes that wait times increased; it does not identify nursing performance as the cause. The administrator is drawing a causal inference that is not supported by the recorded statistics alone — many other factors could explain the change.
Question 2: A traffic report states that the number of accidents on Highway 9 doubled in January compared to December. A commuter tells a friend, 'They must have removed the speed cameras on that stretch.' Which of the following is accurate?
- The commuter's statement is a fact because accident data is publicly recorded.
- The accident count is an inference, while the camera removal is a fact.
- The accident count is a verifiable fact; the camera explanation is an inference. (Correct answer)
- Both the accident count and the camera explanation are inferences.
Correct answer: The accident count is a verifiable fact; the camera explanation is an inference.
The doubled accident count comes from a traffic report and is a verifiable, recorded statistic. The commuter's explanation about speed cameras is an inference — a possible explanation for the trend that is not established by the reported data.
Question 3: A retailer's sales records show that store revenue dropped 20% in the month following a competitor's grand opening nearby. A regional manager states, 'Customers are clearly preferring our competitor's products.' The manager's statement is best described as:
- A fact, because the revenue drop confirms customer preference shifted.
- An inference, because the revenue drop could have multiple explanations. (Correct answer)
- A hypothesis, which is neither a fact nor an inference in critical thinking.
- A fact, because proximity of events establishes a direct cause-and-effect relationship.
Correct answer: An inference, because the revenue drop could have multiple explanations.
The 20% revenue drop is the observable fact. The manager's claim about customer preference is an inference — it is one possible explanation, but the data does not rule out other causes such as seasonal trends, pricing changes, or supply issues.
Question 4: A school district reports that 78% of its third-grade students met reading proficiency standards this year, up from 65% last year. A school board member announces, 'The new literacy curriculum we adopted is clearly working.' Which of the following correctly identifies the nature of these statements?
- Both the percentage increase and the board member's announcement are facts.
- The percentage increase is a fact; the board member's announcement is an inference. (Correct answer)
- The percentage increase is an inference; the board member's announcement is a fact.
- Both statements are inferences because standardized test scores can be unreliable.
Correct answer: The percentage increase is a fact; the board member's announcement is an inference.
The proficiency percentages are recorded outcomes from standardized assessments and constitute verifiable facts. The board member's conclusion that the new curriculum caused the improvement is an inference — other variables such as teacher experience or student demographics could also account for the change.
Question 5: Weather station data shows that the city received 12 inches of rainfall in June, 40% above the monthly average. A local farmer states, 'This excess rain will guarantee a strong harvest this fall.' The farmer's statement is:
- A fact, because rainfall directly determines crop yields.
- A verifiable prediction based entirely on recorded meteorological data.
- An inference, because many additional factors influence harvest outcomes. (Correct answer)
- A fact supported by both the rainfall data and historical farming records.
Correct answer: An inference, because many additional factors influence harvest outcomes.
The rainfall figure is an observable, recorded measurement. However, the farmer's claim about a guaranteed strong harvest is an inference — crop yields depend on many variables beyond rainfall, including temperature, pest activity, soil conditions, and timing of rain throughout the growing season.
Question 6: A university's internal data shows that students who attended more than 90% of lectures had a class average GPA of 3.6, while students who attended fewer than 60% of lectures averaged 2.4 GPA. An academic dean states, 'Low attendance is causing students to earn lower grades.' Which best characterizes the dean's statement?
- It is a fact because GPA and attendance are both measured by the university.
- It is an inference, since the correlation does not by itself establish that attendance causes higher GPA. (Correct answer)
- It is a fact because the GPA difference is statistically significant and therefore proves causation.
- It is an inference only if the sample size of students is too small to draw conclusions.
Correct answer: It is an inference, since the correlation does not by itself establish that attendance causes higher GPA.
The GPA and attendance figures are documented facts. The dean's causal claim — that low attendance causes lower grades — is an inference. Correlation does not establish causation; students who attend less might also differ in motivation, workload, or personal circumstances that independently affect grades.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Critical Thinking Appraisal Distinguishing Facts from Inferences 1
A hospital records show that the average patient wait time in the emergency room increased from 45 minutes to 67 minutes over the past year.
A hospital administrator concludes that the nursing staff is underperforming.
Which statement best describes the administrator's conclusion?