Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 1 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A regional hospital tracked readmission rates after implementing a new discharge checklist. Over 12 months, 30-day readmissions dropped from 18% to 13%. Which conclusion is most warranted?
- The checklist completely eliminated preventable readmissions at the hospital.
- The discharge checklist is associated with a reduction in 30-day readmissions. (Correct answer)
- All hospitals should immediately adopt this exact checklist to improve patient outcomes.
- The drop in readmissions proves the checklist is more effective than any other intervention.
Correct answer: The discharge checklist is associated with a reduction in 30-day readmissions.
The data shows a correlation between the checklist and reduced readmissions, but does not prove causation, universal applicability, or superiority over other methods. The most defensible conclusion is that an association exists.
Question 2: A survey of 1,200 remote workers found that 68% reported higher job satisfaction than they did while working on-site. Which of the following conclusions is best supported?
- Remote work causes higher job satisfaction for all employees.
- A majority of surveyed remote workers reported greater job satisfaction compared to on-site work. (Correct answer)
- Companies that do not offer remote work will lose all their best employees.
- On-site work is inherently worse for employee morale than remote work.
Correct answer: A majority of surveyed remote workers reported greater job satisfaction compared to on-site work.
The survey result directly supports the conclusion that most respondents reported higher satisfaction — a factual restatement of the data. The other options introduce claims about causation, universality, or predictions not supported by the survey.
Question 3: An e-commerce retailer added live chat support to its website. Over the following quarter, cart abandonment rates fell from 72% to 61%. Which conclusion follows most logically?
- Live chat support is the sole reason customers are completing more purchases.
- The introduction of live chat support coincided with a decrease in cart abandonment. (Correct answer)
- The retailer will continue to see cart abandonment fall each quarter.
- Customers who use live chat always complete their purchases.
Correct answer: The introduction of live chat support coincided with a decrease in cart abandonment.
The data establishes a temporal association between adding live chat and reduced cart abandonment, but does not isolate live chat as the sole cause, predict future trends, or make claims about all chat users.
Question 4: A school district adopted a new math curriculum and found that average standardized test scores rose by 8 points over two years, while a neighboring district using the old curriculum saw scores rise by 3 points. What is the most reasonable conclusion?
- The new curriculum is the only factor that improved test scores in the first district.
- Students in the district with the new curriculum outperformed their starting baseline by a greater margin than the comparison district. (Correct answer)
- The old curriculum actively harms student learning in math.
- All school districts should replace their math curricula immediately.
Correct answer: Students in the district with the new curriculum outperformed their starting baseline by a greater margin than the comparison district.
The data supports comparing relative improvement between the two districts. It cannot isolate the curriculum as the only variable, condemn the old curriculum, or justify a universal recommendation.
Question 5: A city government installed LED streetlights citywide and reported a 20% reduction in nighttime traffic accidents over the following year. Crime reports in lit areas also dropped by 12%. Which conclusion is most justified?
- LED streetlights are the definitive cause of both the accident and crime reductions.
- Following the LED streetlight installation, nighttime traffic accidents and crime in lit areas both declined. (Correct answer)
- Any city that installs LED streetlights will achieve equivalent reductions in accidents and crime.
- Streetlight type is the most important factor in determining urban crime rates.
Correct answer: Following the LED streetlight installation, nighttime traffic accidents and crime in lit areas both declined.
The data documents declines that followed the installation, but cannot definitively attribute causation, predict identical results elsewhere, or rank streetlight type above all other factors affecting crime.
Question 6: A nutritionist's study of 400 adults found that those who consumed at least 25 grams of dietary fiber daily had a 30% lower incidence of type 2 diabetes over a 10-year period compared to those consuming under 15 grams. Which conclusion is most strongly supported?
- Eating 25 grams of fiber per day guarantees protection against type 2 diabetes.
- High dietary fiber intake directly causes the prevention of type 2 diabetes.
- Adults with higher dietary fiber intake showed a substantially lower rate of type 2 diabetes over the study period. (Correct answer)
- Anyone who develops type 2 diabetes simply did not eat enough fiber.
Correct answer: Adults with higher dietary fiber intake showed a substantially lower rate of type 2 diabetes over the study period.
The study shows a significant statistical association between higher fiber intake and lower diabetes incidence. It does not prove causation, guarantee outcomes, or justify blaming individuals who develop the disease.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 1
A regional hospital tracked readmission rates after implementing a new discharge checklist.
Over 12 months, 30-day readmissions dropped from 18% to 13%.
Which conclusion is most warranted?