Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A study found that employees who participate in regular team-building exercises report higher job satisfaction. Based on this information, what is the probability of the following inference: Team-building exercises directly cause increased job satisfaction.
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
The study shows a correlation between team-building and satisfaction, but other factors such as workplace culture or management style could also contribute, making the causal claim unsupported by the data alone.
Question 2: A city implemented a new public transit system last year. Since then, traffic congestion during rush hours has decreased by 15%. What is the probability of the inference: The new transit system is responsible for the reduction in traffic congestion.
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
While other factors could contribute, the timing and magnitude of the decrease make it probably true that the new transit system played a significant role in reducing congestion.
Question 3: Research indicates that 80% of successful entrepreneurs read at least one book per month. From this, what is the probability of the inference: Reading frequently will make a person a successful entrepreneur.
- True
- Probably True
- Probably False (Correct answer)
- False
Correct answer: Probably False
The statistic describes a habit common among successful entrepreneurs but does not establish that reading alone leads to entrepreneurial success, as many other factors are involved.
Question 4: A hospital reported that patients who received a new experimental drug showed a 40% faster recovery rate compared to those on standard treatment. What is the probability of the inference: The experimental drug is more effective than the standard treatment.
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
A 40% faster recovery rate provides strong evidence that the drug is likely more effective, though additional controlled studies would be needed for certainty.
Question 5: In a survey of 500 college students, 70% said they prefer online learning to in-person classes. What is the probability of the inference: The majority of all college students in the United States prefer online learning.
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
A survey of 500 students from unknown institutions cannot reliably represent the preferences of all U.S. college students without knowing the sampling methodology.
Question 6: A company's quarterly earnings have increased for eight consecutive quarters. What is the probability of the inference: The company's earnings will increase again next quarter.
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
Eight consecutive quarters of growth establishes a strong trend that makes continued growth probable, though market conditions could change.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 2
A study found that employees who participate in regular team-building exercises report higher job satisfaction.
Based on this information, what is the probability of the following inference: Team-building exercises directly cause increased job satisfaction.