Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Interpreting Evidence and Data Questions and Answers — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: A retail company's customer service department reported that complaints about shipping delays increased by 50% in the last quarter compared to the previous quarter. During this same period, the company switched to a new, lower-cost logistics partner. Inference: The new logistics partner is the cause of the increased shipping delays.
- The inference is probably false.
- The inference is probably true. (Correct answer)
- The inference is definitely true.
- There is insufficient data to make a determination.
Correct answer: The inference is probably true.
The inference is 'Probably True' because the two events—switching to a new logistics partner and a 50% increase in shipping delay complaints—occurred simultaneously. While this strong correlation suggests a likely causal link, it is not definitive proof. Other factors, such as a sudden increase in order volume or external weather events, could have contributed. Therefore, 'Definitely True' is too strong a conclusion, but the evidence makes the inference more likely to be true than false.
Question 2: Statement: A survey conducted in a specific city found that 85% of residents who own a dog report feeling 'happy' on a daily basis, compared to only 60% of residents who do not own a pet. The survey was professionally conducted with a representative sample and a low margin of error. Inference: Owning a dog makes people in this city happier.
- The inference is definitely true.
- The inference is probably true.
- There is insufficient data to determine if the inference is true. (Correct answer)
- The inference is probably false.
Correct answer: There is insufficient data to determine if the inference is true.
There is 'Insufficient Data' to support the inference. The statement shows a correlation between dog ownership and reported happiness, but it does not establish causation. It is equally possible that happier people are more likely to get dogs, or that a third factor (like being more active or having a larger home) contributes to both dog ownership and happiness. The data does not prove that the act of owning a dog is the cause of the increased happiness.
Question 3: Statement: In a controlled study, 100 tomato plants were divided into two groups. Group A was grown with a new liquid fertilizer, while Group B was grown with only water. All other conditions (sunlight, soil, temperature) were identical. After 12 weeks, the average plant in Group A was 30% taller and produced 40% more fruit than the average plant in Group B. Inference: The new liquid fertilizer is effective at improving tomato plant growth and yield under the tested conditions.
- The inference is definitely true.
- There is insufficient data to make a determination.
- The inference is definitely false.
- The inference is probably true. (Correct answer)
Correct answer: The inference is probably true.
The inference is 'Probably True'. The experiment was well-controlled, isolating the fertilizer as the key variable. The significant positive results in Group A strongly support the conclusion that the fertilizer is effective. It is not 'Definitely True' because in scientific contexts, a single study provides strong evidence but not absolute certainty; results typically need to be replicated. However, based solely on the information provided, the inference is highly probable.
Question 4: Statement: Three months ago, a technology company mandated that all employees must return to the office five days a week, ending its popular remote work policy. In the following quarter, the company's rate of voluntary employee resignations increased by 40%, and its internal employee satisfaction score dropped by 25 points. Inference: The mandatory return-to-office policy is unpopular with the company's employees.
- The inference is probably true. (Correct answer)
- The inference is definitely false.
- There is insufficient data to make a determination.
- The inference is probably false.
Correct answer: The inference is probably true.
This inference is 'Probably True'. The data shows a strong temporal correlation between the implementation of the new, stricter policy and two negative outcomes directly related to employee sentiment: a sharp increase in people quitting and a significant drop in satisfaction scores. While other factors could exist, the most direct and logical explanation for these changes is the policy itself, making the inference highly probable.
Question 5: Statement: A city ordinance states, 'No vehicle exceeding 3 tons in weight may use the old suspension bridge.' A standard passenger minivan, which weighs 2.5 tons, crossed the bridge yesterday. Inference: The minivan's crossing of the bridge was a violation of the ordinance.
- The inference is probably true.
- There is insufficient data to make a determination.
- The inference is definitely false. (Correct answer)
- The inference is probably false.
Correct answer: The inference is definitely false.
The inference is 'Definitely False'. The ordinance explicitly applies to vehicles 'exceeding 3 tons'. The minivan weighs 2.5 tons, which is less than the 3-ton limit. Therefore, based on a direct interpretation of the facts given, the minivan did not violate the ordinance. The inference directly contradicts the information provided.
Question 6: Statement: A market research report shows that in the last year, sales of traditional print books increased by 5%, while sales of e-books decreased by 3%. The report surveyed over 5,000 consumers across various demographics. Inference: Consumers are losing interest in reading on digital devices.
- The inference is definitely true.
- There is insufficient data to make a determination. (Correct answer)
- The inference is probably true.
- The inference is definitely false.
Correct answer: There is insufficient data to make a determination.
There is 'Insufficient Data' to make this broad inference. The data shows a one-year decline in e-book sales, but this does not necessarily mean consumers are losing interest in digital reading overall. The decline could be a temporary fluctuation, or people could be reading on other digital platforms not covered by the 'e-book sales' metric (e.g., library apps, online articles, subscription services). A single year's data is not enough to conclude a long-term trend in consumer interest.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Interpreting Evidence and Data Questions and Answers
Statement: A retail company's customer service department reported that complaints about shipping delays increased by 50% in the last quarter compared to the previous quarter.
During this same period, the company switched to a new, lower-cost logistics partner.
Inference: The new logistics partner is the cause of the increased shipping delays.