Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: 'The hospital's emergency department reported a 35% increase in admissions last winter.' Inference: 'There was an unusually severe flu season last winter.' How should this inference be rated?
- Definitely true — the increase must be caused by flu.
- Probably true — a flu outbreak is a plausible and common explanation but other factors could contribute. (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data — no conclusion about causes can be drawn.
- Probably false — emergency departments grow in winter for unrelated reasons.
Correct answer: Probably true — a flu outbreak is a plausible and common explanation but other factors could contribute.
A severe flu season is a plausible and common cause of winter ER surges, but other factors (accidents, cold-related illnesses) could also contribute, making this 'probably true' rather than definite.
The WGCTA asks you to assess whether an inference is probably true, probably false, definitely true, definitely false, or insufficient. A 35% increase in ER admissions in winter strongly suggests infectious disease or cold-weather illness — flu being the most common cause of such spikes. However, the statement does not confirm flu specifically, and other winter factors (hypothermia, accidents, respiratory conditions) could also contribute. Therefore 'probably true' correctly reflects a reasonable but non-certain inference. 'Definitely true' overclaims. 'Insufficient data' underclaims given the clear winter-surge correlation.
Question 2: Statement: 'Since the new coffee shop opened near the office, the number of employees arriving late has doubled.' Inference: 'Employees are stopping at the coffee shop and losing track of time.' How should this inference be rated?
- Definitely true — the timing proves the coffee shop is causing lateness.
- Probably true — the coffee shop is a plausible reason but other causes could exist. (Correct answer)
- Definitely false — employees would not risk their jobs for coffee.
- Insufficient data — the statement gives no information about why employees are late.
Correct answer: Probably true — the coffee shop is a plausible reason but other causes could exist.
The timing coincidence makes the coffee shop a plausible explanation, but other factors (road construction, schedule changes) could also explain increased lateness, so 'probably true' is appropriate.
The WGCTA inference evaluation requires balancing plausibility against certainty. The temporal coincidence — lateness doubling after the coffee shop opened — is suggestive but not conclusive. It is reasonable to infer that some employees stop there, but the statement does not confirm this. Alternative explanations (new traffic patterns, a nearby construction project, changed work schedules) remain possible. 'Definitely true' requires evidence beyond coincidence. 'Definitely false' contradicts common sense. 'Insufficient data' ignores the meaningful temporal signal in the statement.
Question 3: Statement: 'The marketing department's budget was cut by 40% this quarter, and the company spent the savings on expanding its IT infrastructure.' Inference: 'The company believes technology investment will improve its competitive position more than marketing.' How should this inference be rated?
- Definitely true — reallocating money to IT proves that belief.
- Probably true — the reallocation suggests prioritizing IT over marketing, though the specific belief is inferred. (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data — budget decisions reveal nothing about company beliefs.
- Probably false — marketing cuts are usually cost-saving measures, not strategic shifts.
Correct answer: Probably true — the reallocation suggests prioritizing IT over marketing, though the specific belief is inferred.
The deliberate reallocation of funds from marketing to IT suggests a strategic preference, though the exact belief motivating the decision is inferred rather than stated.
Budget decisions typically reflect organizational priorities. Deliberately cutting marketing by 40% and directing those funds to IT infrastructure suggests an underlying belief that IT investment will yield more value. However, 'probably true' is more appropriate than 'definitely true' because the motivating belief is inferred — the company may have also faced external pressure, industry trends, or compliance requirements driving the IT investment. Option D assumes cuts are purely defensive, which ignores the active expansion of IT. Option C overcorrects by denying that budget decisions carry any inferential weight about priorities.
Question 4: Statement: 'A survey of 500 customers found that 78% preferred the new product packaging over the old design.' Inference: 'The company will adopt the new packaging for all product lines.' How should this inference be rated?
- Definitely true — strong consumer preference always dictates packaging decisions.
- Probably true — high preference makes adoption likely but business factors could intervene. (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data — the survey alone cannot predict company decisions.
- Definitely false — companies rarely change all product lines at once.
Correct answer: Probably true — high preference makes adoption likely but business factors could intervene.
A 78% preference makes adoption likely, but cost, supply chain constraints, regulatory requirements, or brand strategy could still prevent full adoption across all lines.
Consumer preference data is a major input into packaging decisions, and 78% is a strong majority. However, the inference that the company will adopt the new packaging for ALL product lines is broader than the data supports. Practical constraints — different supply chains, packaging regulations for specific product categories, licensing issues, or cost of retooling — could limit or delay adoption. 'Probably true' acknowledges the strong signal while recognizing that business decisions involve multiple factors. 'Definitely true' overclaims by treating consumer preference as the sole determinant.
Question 5: Statement: 'The regional office closed after the company reported its worst financial quarter in a decade.' Inference: 'The regional office was closed because of poor financial performance.' How should this inference be rated?
- Definitely true — office closures always follow financial losses.
- Probably true — poor financials make cost-cutting closures a likely cause. (Correct answer)
- Definitely false — office closures are strategic decisions unrelated to finances.
- Insufficient data — no causal link between financial results and the closure is stated.
Correct answer: Probably true — poor financials make cost-cutting closures a likely cause.
While cost reduction during poor performance commonly leads to office closures, the statement presents only temporal succession, not a confirmed causal link, making 'probably true' the most accurate rating.
The temporal proximity of a poor financial quarter and an office closure is highly suggestive. Companies routinely close underperforming or non-essential offices as cost-cutting measures when facing financial difficulty. However, the closure could also be strategically motivated — consolidation for operational efficiency, lease expiration, or a pre-planned restructuring that predates the financial results. The statement establishes sequence but not cause. Option D correctly notes no stated causal link, but 'insufficient data' is too conservative given that the inference follows reasonable business logic. 'Probably true' balances the strength of the implication with appropriate epistemic humility.
Question 6: Statement: 'The number of registered electric vehicles in the country tripled over the last three years, while the number of new petrol vehicle registrations declined by 22%.' Inference: 'Consumer preference is shifting significantly from petrol to electric vehicles.' How should this inference be rated?
- Definitely true — a triple increase and 22% decline prove a preference shift.
- Probably true — the data strongly suggests a shift in consumer preference, though other factors may contribute. (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data — registration numbers do not reflect consumer preferences.
- Probably false — electric vehicles are still a minority of total registrations.
Correct answer: Probably true — the data strongly suggests a shift in consumer preference, though other factors may contribute.
The combination of rapidly rising EV registrations and declining petrol registrations is strong evidence of a preference shift, though subsidies, fuel prices, or regulation could also be driving it.
A tripling of EV registrations combined with a decline in petrol registrations is compelling evidence of a structural shift in the vehicle market. This strongly supports the inference of changing consumer preferences. However, 'definitely true' would require ruling out alternative drivers — government incentives, fuel cost spikes, or regulatory mandates could be compelling consumers to switch regardless of underlying preference. Option C incorrectly dismisses registrations as a proxy for preference. Option D focuses on absolute numbers rather than the trend direction. 'Probably true' correctly reads the direction of the evidence while acknowledging that preference is one of several possible explanations for the trend.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 2
Statement: 'The hospital's emergency department reported a 35% increase in admissions last winter.' Inference: 'There was an unusually severe flu season last winter.' How should this inference be rated?