Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: A company-wide memo announced that due to a 15% decrease in quarterly profits, all non-essential travel for employees is suspended indefinitely. The memo also stated that the company will be re-evaluating all departmental budgets in the coming weeks. Inference: Some employees will likely be laid off.
- TRUE
- PROBABLY TRUE
- INSUFFICIENT DATA (Correct answer)
- PROBABLY FALSE
Correct answer: INSUFFICIENT DATA
The statement of facts only mentions the suspension of non-essential travel and a re-evaluation of departmental budgets as responses to decreased profits. While layoffs are a possible outcome of budget re-evaluations and profit loss, the memo does not state or imply that this will happen. Therefore, there is not enough information to determine if the inference is likely true or false.
Question 2: Statement: Over the past five years, every new product launched by the technology company 'Innovate Inc.' has exceeded its first-year sales targets by at least 20%. The company is launching a new smartphone, the 'VisionPro X', next month, which has received positive early reviews from tech bloggers. Inference: The VisionPro X will exceed its first-year sales target.
- PROBABLY TRUE (Correct answer)
- FALSE
- INSUFFICIENT DATA
- TRUE
Correct answer: PROBABLY TRUE
Given the company's consistent five-year track record of successful product launches and the positive early reviews for the new product, it is highly probable that the VisionPro X will also exceed its sales targets. However, it is not absolutely certain, as unforeseen market factors could arise. Therefore, the inference is 'Probably True'.
Question 3: Statement: A study of 1,000 adults found a positive correlation between the number of books read per year and annual income. The study controlled for age and level of education. Inference: Reading more books causes an increase in annual income.
- TRUE
- PROBABLY TRUE
- PROBABLY FALSE
- FALSE (Correct answer)
Correct answer: FALSE
The statement explicitly says there is a 'correlation,' not a 'causation.' A correlation means two variables are related, but it does not mean one causes the other. Another factor could cause both, or the relationship could be coincidental. The inference makes a definitive claim of causation, which is a misinterpretation of the facts provided.
Question 4: Statement: All members of the finance committee at a large corporation are required to have a certification in public accounting (CPA). Sarah is a senior executive at this corporation but is not on the finance committee. Inference: Sarah does not have a CPA.
- PROBABLY FALSE
- TRUE
- FALSE
- INSUFFICIENT DATA (Correct answer)
Correct answer: INSUFFICIENT DATA
The statement tells us that having a CPA is a requirement to be *on* the finance committee. It does not state that only members of the finance committee can have a CPA. Sarah could have a CPA and simply not be on that specific committee. We have no information about her qualifications, so there is insufficient data to make a judgment.
Question 5: Statement: In a local election, Candidate A received 45% of the vote, Candidate B received 43%, and Candidate C received 12%. All votes have been counted. Inference: Candidate A is the new mayor.
- FALSE
- INSUFFICIENT DATA (Correct answer)
- TRUE
- PROBABLY TRUE
Correct answer: INSUFFICIENT DATA
While Candidate A received the most votes (a plurality), we do not know the rules of the election. Many elections require a candidate to receive more than 50% of the vote to win outright. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election between the top two candidates might be required. Without knowing the specific election rules, we cannot conclude that Candidate A is the winner.
Question 6: Statement: A pharmaceutical company conducted a double-blind study on a new allergy medication. The group taking the new medication reported a 60% reduction in symptoms, while the group taking a placebo reported a 25% reduction in symptoms. The results were determined to be statistically significant. Inference: The new medication is completely ineffective for some of the people who take it.
- PROBABLY FALSE
- FALSE
- PROBABLY TRUE (Correct answer)
- INSUFFICIENT DATA
Correct answer: PROBABLY TRUE
The medication produced a 60% average reduction in symptoms. This is an average across the entire group. In any large group, there will be a range of responses. It is highly probable that some individuals experienced a much higher reduction, while others experienced a much lower reduction, including potentially 0%. The average figure makes it likely, though not absolutely certain, that the effect was not uniform for every single person.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers
Statement: A company-wide memo announced that due to a 15% decrease in quarterly profits, all non-essential travel for employees is suspended indefinitely.
The memo also stated that the company will be re-evaluating all departmental budgets in the coming weeks.
Inference: Some employees will likely be laid off.