PMI-SP Duration Estimating 3 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A PMI-SP professional is applying Monte Carlo analysis to a schedule. What is the PRIMARY output of this simulation technique for duration estimating?
- A single deterministic project end date
- A probability distribution of possible project completion dates (Correct answer)
- The critical path length in working days
- Resource histogram showing peak usage
Correct answer: A probability distribution of possible project completion dates
Monte Carlo analysis produces a probability distribution of outcomes, showing the likelihood of completing the project by various dates.
Question 2: A project scheduler is evaluating activity durations considering resource availability. A task requires 40 hours of effort, and the assigned resource is available at 50% capacity. What is the activity duration?
- 20 days
- 40 hours
- 80 hours (Correct answer)
- 10 days
Correct answer: 80 hours
When a resource works at 50% capacity, the duration doubles: 40 hours of effort ÷ 0.50 = 80 hours of calendar time.
Question 3: Which factor does NOT directly influence activity duration estimates?
- Resource skill level
- Number of resources assigned
- Project budget variance (Correct answer)
- Availability of required equipment
Correct answer: Project budget variance
Project budget variance is a cost metric and does not directly influence how long an activity takes to complete.
Question 4: A project team is using bottom-up estimating for a complex deliverable. What is the FIRST step in this process?
- Assign contingency reserves to each work package
- Decompose work into smaller, more manageable components (Correct answer)
- Gather analogous data from previous projects
- Apply parametric equations to the total scope
Correct answer: Decompose work into smaller, more manageable components
Bottom-up estimating begins with decomposing work into smaller components so that each piece can be individually estimated and then aggregated.
Question 5: A scheduler reviews historical data showing that similar projects had durations of 12, 15, 14, 13, and 16 months. Using analogous estimating, what duration would be most appropriate for a comparable new project?
- 12 months
- 14 months (Correct answer)
- 16 months
- 18 months
Correct answer: 14 months
The average (mean) of 12, 15, 14, 13, and 16 is 14 months, making it the most representative analogous estimate.
Question 6: During duration estimating, what is the significance of the learning curve effect?
- Resources become less productive as a project progresses
- Productivity increases as team members repeat similar tasks (Correct answer)
- New technology always increases activity durations
- Training time is excluded from duration estimates
Correct answer: Productivity increases as team members repeat similar tasks
The learning curve effect means that as team members perform repetitive tasks, their productivity improves, reducing durations over time.
Question 7: A project manager is asked to provide a rough order of magnitude estimate for duration early in the project. Which estimating technique is MOST suited for this stage?
- Bottom-up estimating
- Three-point estimating
- Analogous estimating (Correct answer)
- Parametric estimating with detailed metrics
Correct answer: Analogous estimating
Analogous estimating is best suited for early-stage rough order of magnitude estimates when project details are not yet defined.
PMI-SP Duration Estimating 3
A PMI-SP professional is applying Monte Carlo analysis to a schedule.
What is the PRIMARY output of this simulation technique for duration estimating?