ISAT - International Student Admissions Test International Student Admissions Identifying Assumptions in Arguments 1 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A university administrator argues: 'Since our graduates earn 30% more than the national average, attending our university is a worthwhile investment.' What is the most critical unstated assumption?
- Universities should focus primarily on graduate earnings rather than academic excellence.
- The higher earnings are caused by attending the university rather than by other factors such as student selection. (Correct answer)
- A 30% salary premium is sufficient to justify any level of tuition cost.
- All students who attend the university will achieve the same salary outcomes.
Correct answer: The higher earnings are caused by attending the university rather than by other factors such as student selection.
The argument assumes a causal relationship between attending the university and higher earnings, but the higher salaries could simply reflect that the university admits students who were already high-achievers likely to earn more regardless of where they studied. Without ruling out this selection bias, the conclusion does not follow.
Question 2: A health campaign states: 'Countries with higher rates of bicycle use have lower rates of heart disease, so encouraging cycling will reduce heart disease in our population.' What assumption underlies this reasoning?
- Heart disease is the leading cause of death in all countries studied.
- The relationship between cycling rates and heart disease is causal, not merely correlational. (Correct answer)
- Governments have a responsibility to promote physical activity among citizens.
- Cycling is more effective than other forms of exercise for cardiovascular health.
Correct answer: The relationship between cycling rates and heart disease is causal, not merely correlational.
The argument moves from a statistical association to a policy recommendation, assuming that cycling itself causes lower heart disease rates. However, both could be caused by a third factor, such as overall lifestyle habits or urban design. The assumption of causation rather than mere correlation is essential to the argument.
Question 3: A technology company argues: 'Our new productivity software increased output by 25% at the three firms that piloted it, so rolling it out company-wide will produce the same gains.' What is the hidden assumption?
- The three pilot firms were representative of all departments and working conditions across the company. (Correct answer)
- A 25% productivity increase is the maximum achievable with any software solution.
- Employees prefer digital tools to traditional workflows in every industry sector.
- The software was developed using the latest artificial intelligence algorithms.
Correct answer: The three pilot firms were representative of all departments and working conditions across the company.
The conclusion relies on the assumption that the pilot firms are representative of the broader organisation. If the pilot firms differed in size, staff skill level, or task type, the results may not generalise. Without this assumption, the 25% gain cannot reliably be projected company-wide.
Question 4: A politician claims: 'We should lower the corporate tax rate because countries that have done so have seen increased foreign investment.' What must be assumed for this argument to hold?
- Foreign investment is always more beneficial than domestic investment for economic growth.
- The tax rate reduction, rather than other concurrent policy changes, was responsible for the investment increase. (Correct answer)
- Corporate taxes are the single most important factor businesses consider when choosing where to invest.
- Higher foreign investment necessarily leads to improved living standards for all citizens.
Correct answer: The tax rate reduction, rather than other concurrent policy changes, was responsible for the investment increase.
The argument assumes that the tax cut specifically caused the rise in investment, but those countries may have simultaneously improved infrastructure, reduced regulation, or benefited from broader global economic trends. Without isolating the tax cut as the causal factor, the comparison does not support the recommendation.
Question 5: A school counsellor advises: 'Students who read for pleasure for at least 20 minutes a day consistently score higher on verbal reasoning tests, so you should read daily to improve your scores.' What assumption is this advice making?
- Verbal reasoning tests are the most accurate measure of a student's academic potential.
- The reading habit causes the higher scores rather than both being products of an underlying aptitude or motivation. (Correct answer)
- Twenty minutes is the precise minimum time required to produce measurable cognitive benefits.
- All genres of recreational reading are equally effective for improving verbal reasoning skills.
Correct answer: The reading habit causes the higher scores rather than both being products of an underlying aptitude or motivation.
The counsellor assumes that daily reading produces better scores, but it is equally possible that students who are naturally stronger verbal reasoners are also more inclined to read for pleasure. The advice requires the assumption that the activity itself drives the outcome, not that both stem from a common underlying trait.
Question 6: An environmental report argues: 'City A introduced a plastic bag fee and saw a 60% drop in plastic bag litter within one year, proving that such fees effectively reduce plastic pollution.' What is the most important hidden assumption?
- A 60% reduction in litter is sufficient to meet international environmental targets.
- No other significant changes, such as public awareness campaigns or enforcement programmes, occurred simultaneously in City A. (Correct answer)
- Plastic bag litter is the primary driver of overall plastic pollution in urban environments.
- All cities have the administrative capacity to implement and enforce a plastic bag fee.
Correct answer: No other significant changes, such as public awareness campaigns or enforcement programmes, occurred simultaneously in City A.
The argument attributes the litter reduction entirely to the bag fee, but if City A also launched recycling campaigns, hired additional enforcement officers, or changed waste management practices at the same time, those factors could explain the improvement. The argument assumes the fee was the only relevant variable.
ISAT - International Student Admissions Test International Student Admissions Identifying Assumptions in Arguments 1
A university administrator argues: 'Since our graduates earn 30% more than the national average, attending our university is a worthwhile investment.' What is the most critical unstated assumption?