Civil Service Verbal Reasoning Test Critical Thinking 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A government press release states: 'Crime has fallen by 12% this year, demonstrating that our policing strategy is working.' Which of the following would most strengthen this claim?
- The definition of certain crimes was narrowed this year, resulting in fewer incidents being recorded
- Areas where the new policing strategy was implemented saw significantly greater crime reductions than areas where it was not (Correct answer)
- Public perception of crime has also decreased
- Police officer numbers increased during the same period
Correct answer: Areas where the new policing strategy was implemented saw significantly greater crime reductions than areas where it was not
If areas with the new strategy saw greater reductions than areas without it, this provides comparative evidence that the strategy specifically caused the improvement, rather than other factors. This directly strengthens the causal link claimed in the press release.
Question 2: A Treasury analysis concludes: 'Tax receipts increased by 5% last year. This demonstrates that the economy is growing strongly.' What is the most significant flaw in this reasoning?
- Tax receipts are not a reliable economic indicator
- The increase could be due to raised tax rates rather than economic growth (Correct answer)
- 5% is a modest increase that does not constitute strong growth
- The Treasury has a vested interest in presenting positive economic news
Correct answer: The increase could be due to raised tax rates rather than economic growth
Tax receipts can increase either because the economy grew (larger tax base) or because tax rates were raised (same base, higher rate). Without distinguishing between these causes, concluding that the increase demonstrates economic growth is a logical flaw — the same effect could have a completely different cause.
Question 3: A departmental memo argues: 'We should not invest in upgrading our IT systems because the last IT upgrade in 2019 went over budget by 40% and caused significant disruption.' What type of reasoning flaw does this represent?
- Appeal to authority — relying on expert opinion rather than evidence
- Hasty generalisation — drawing a broad conclusion from a single past experience (Correct answer)
- Circular reasoning — the conclusion simply restates the premise
- Straw man — misrepresenting the opposing position
Correct answer: Hasty generalisation — drawing a broad conclusion from a single past experience
Concluding that all future IT upgrades will fail based on one previous experience is a hasty generalisation. A single data point does not establish a reliable pattern, and circumstances, technology, and project management may have changed significantly since 2019.
Question 4: A policy adviser argues: 'Norway has an excellent state pension system and also has high levels of oil revenue. The UK should therefore increase oil production to fund better pensions.' What is the primary logical error?
- Assuming correlation implies causation between oil revenue and pension quality (Correct answer)
- Ignoring that the UK has different geography to Norway
- Failing to consider the cost of oil production
- Overlooking that Norway's population is smaller
Correct answer: Assuming correlation implies causation between oil revenue and pension quality
The argument observes that Norway has both oil revenue and good pensions, then assumes one causes the other. However, Norway's pension system may be excellent for many reasons unrelated to oil revenue (e.g., political choices, tax policy, demographic factors). Treating co-occurrence as causation is the central flaw.
Question 5: A report states: '95% of civil servants who completed the new training programme rated it as useful. This confirms the programme should be rolled out to all staff.' Which consideration most weakens this conclusion?
- The programme was expensive to develop
- Only volunteers participated, and those who volunteered may have been predisposed to find it useful (Correct answer)
- Some participants rated it as very useful rather than just useful
- The training programme covered relevant topics
Correct answer: Only volunteers participated, and those who volunteered may have been predisposed to find it useful
Self-selection bias is the key issue. If only volunteers participated, they were likely already motivated and interested in the training, making them predisposed to rate it positively. Mandatory rollout to all staff — including those who would not have volunteered — may produce very different satisfaction levels.
Question 6: A senior official states: 'We must either cut the department's budget by 20% or make 500 staff redundant. There is no other option.' What type of reasoning flaw is this?
- False dilemma — presenting only two options when others may exist (Correct answer)
- Ad hominem — attacking the person rather than the argument
- Slippery slope — suggesting one action will lead to extreme consequences
- Begging the question — assuming the conclusion in the premise
Correct answer: False dilemma — presenting only two options when others may exist
This is a false dilemma (also called a false dichotomy). The official presents only two extreme options whilst ignoring alternatives such as efficiency savings, revenue generation, phased reductions, redeployment, or a combination of smaller measures. Real policy decisions rarely have only two possible outcomes.
Civil Service Verbal Reasoning Test Critical Thinking 2
A government press release states: 'Crime has fallen by 12% this year, demonstrating that our policing strategy is working.' Which of the following would most strengthen this claim?