AWA Evaluating Evidence and Assumptions 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: An argument states: 'Our competitor's sales dropped after they raised prices, so we should not raise our prices.' What assumption does this argument make?
- The competitor's product is identical to ours
- Price is the only factor that caused the competitor's sales drop (Correct answer)
- Our costs are lower than the competitor's
- Customers prefer our brand over the competitor's
Correct answer: Price is the only factor that caused the competitor's sales drop
The argument assumes price alone caused the competitor's decline, ignoring other factors like product quality changes, marketing shifts, or economic conditions.
Question 2: Which type of evidence most effectively undermines a causal claim in an AWA argument?
- Anecdotal evidence supporting the claim
- Statistical correlation data
- Evidence showing the effect occurred without the proposed cause (Correct answer)
- Expert opinion endorsing the claim
Correct answer: Evidence showing the effect occurred without the proposed cause
Showing the effect can occur without the proposed cause directly breaks the causal link the argument depends on.
Question 3: A study shows that cities with more libraries have higher literacy rates. An argument concludes that building libraries causes literacy to rise. What is the primary flaw?
- The sample size is too small
- Correlation is mistaken for causation (Correct answer)
- Libraries are too expensive to build
- The study did not include rural areas
Correct answer: Correlation is mistaken for causation
Correlation between libraries and literacy does not establish that libraries caused the literacy increase; a third factor like wealth could explain both.
Question 4: An AWA argument claims: 'Employee satisfaction surveys at Company X showed 80% satisfaction, so Company X is a great place to work.' Which assumption weakens this most?
- The surveys were conducted online
- Dissatisfied employees may have left before the survey was given (Correct answer)
- Satisfaction surveys are generally reliable
- Company X has 500 employees
Correct answer: Dissatisfied employees may have left before the survey was given
If unhappy employees already left, the survey only captures the remaining satisfied workers, creating survivorship bias.
Question 5: What does 'cherry-picking evidence' mean in the context of an AWA argument evaluation?
- Using only the most recent data available
- Selecting only evidence that supports the conclusion while ignoring contradictory data (Correct answer)
- Choosing evidence from credible academic sources
- Presenting multiple types of evidence for one claim
Correct answer: Selecting only evidence that supports the conclusion while ignoring contradictory data
Cherry-picking means selectively presenting favorable evidence and omitting contradictory data, which distorts the full picture.
Question 6: An argument concludes: 'Since our new training program launched, productivity rose 15%. The training caused this improvement.' What evidence would most strengthen this conclusion?
- Testimonials from employees who liked the training
- A control group of similar employees who did not receive training showed no productivity gains (Correct answer)
- The training program cost less than expected
- Productivity also rose at competitor companies during the same period
Correct answer: A control group of similar employees who did not receive training showed no productivity gains
A control group that showed no gain while the trained group improved provides the strongest evidence of a causal relationship.
Question 7: Which of the following represents an unwarranted assumption about a population based on a sample?
- A nationwide random survey of 10,000 people predicts election outcomes
- A poll of 50 customers at one store is used to represent all customers nationwide (Correct answer)
- A clinical trial of 2,000 patients determines drug efficacy
- A census counts every household in a defined region
Correct answer: A poll of 50 customers at one store is used to represent all customers nationwide
Using 50 customers from one store to generalize about all customers nationwide is a hasty generalization due to a small, unrepresentative sample.
AWA Evaluating Evidence and Assumptions 2
An argument states: 'Our competitor's sales dropped after they raised prices, so we should not raise our prices.' What assumption does this argument make?